# UEFA Champions League

> Most Assists: Vinícius Júnior leads at 87%, runner-up 80% across 13 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/uefa-champions-league
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:28.432Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-13

## Headline

- Leader: Most Assists: Vinícius Júnior at 87%
- Runner-up: Most Player of the Match Awards: Harry Kane at 80%
- Outcomes: 13 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (13 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (13)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most Assists: Vinícius Júnior | 87¢ | +2pp | $254 | polymarket | /markets/uefa-champions-league-most-assists-vincius-jnior-polymarket-0x3c470aeef9db9db71c8b8a1dd88d00d2e5fd56e63a62146ad66745f70499524e |
| Most Player of the Match Awards: Harry Kane | 80¢ | −1pp | $408 | polymarket | /markets/uefa-champions-league-most-player-of-the-match-awa-polymarket-0x85ca75b0adad859523569ae4779fd70c55b9a197c58308611f0cbabae1a953dd |
| Home country of champion: France | 57¢ | +13pp | $201 | polymarket | /markets/uefa-champions-league-home-country-of-champion-fra-polymarket-0x582deddec9e371ede95b6884df883ccc477204aceff7ef1a1175f3091860aff3 |
| Most Goal Contributions: Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 52¢ | ±0 | $25 | polymarket | /markets/uefa-champions-league-most-goal-contributions-khvi-polymarket-0x76a3860be1c738789e7224debb67024812a1d6f606fbf010a7306fe589e9cbad |
| Most Red Cards: Robert Andrich | 49¢ | +2pp | $20 | polymarket | /markets/uefa-champions-league-most-red-cards-robert-andric-polymarket-0x559139a1488d5879e3073007dea1f784b518381acb0d550a95004089ecccbcad |
| Home country of champion: England | 43¢ | +12pp | $2 | polymarket | /markets/uefa-champions-league-home-country-of-champion-eng-polymarket-0x831c01fffcd137a9ebba18cfcf976d68cadf475a4e2eab22af1f822dc7386482 |
| Most Player of the Match Awards: Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 13¢ | −16pp | $12 | polymarket | /markets/uefa-champions-league-most-player-of-the-match-awa-polymarket-0x7f432a56899d987bc55639e8ff66713a424c10f26d463f48f52a2cbd8f370f87 |
| Most Assists: Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 10¢ | −1pp | $229 | polymarket | /markets/uefa-champions-league-most-assists-khvicha-kvarats-polymarket-0x388458150da509a1c194b91c648b267f5ffb3995fd345f3ed6666ab1b6bd712b |
| Most Yellow Cards: Declan Rice | 8¢ | −12pp | $126 | polymarket | /markets/uefa-champions-league-most-yellow-cards-declan-ric-polymarket-0xdea7c85f11943b8a6ace90ac34f58eefb9772e9a49c1c0c38ecb9449b4248345 |
| Most Assists: Achraf Hakimi | 5¢ | −4pp | $50 | polymarket | /markets/uefa-champions-league-most-assists-achraf-hakimi-polymarket-0xd358d9ff52464adc06d8e355dac5090765a8dd1e5183fc0d8aad005015533544 |
| Most Red Cards: Mikel Merino | 5¢ | −18pp | $10 | polymarket | /markets/uefa-champions-league-most-red-cards-mikel-merino-polymarket-0xe0f5bbc726059fd67d2b86caea9a64dbdc3ddfc786c1fff015d7e288f955bf07 |
| Most Assists: Michael Olise | 3¢ | −1pp | $776 | polymarket | /markets/uefa-champions-league-most-assists-michael-olise-polymarket-0xb50e1f31a2ace80bbf51934231f9d90af9fb259a0c687e452196bb8581127fc2 |
| Most Yellow Cards: Martín Zubimendi | 3¢ | −28pp | $61 | polymarket | /markets/uefa-champions-league-most-yellow-cards-martn-zubi-polymarket-0x2113f0677a4d53aae64f0151746af96aea06a7f6320f4f184ee5da5ca301a43f |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Most Assists: Vinícius Júnior | Most Player of the Match Awards: Harry Kane | Home country of champion: France |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 21 | 64 | 22 |
| 2026-04-24 | 37 | 62 | 26 |
| 2026-04-25 | 34 | 62 | — |
| 2026-05-01 | 36 | 55 | 30 |
| 2026-05-02 | 35 | 55 | — |
| 2026-05-06 | 39 | 59 | 43 |
| 2026-05-08 | 83 | 81 | — |
| 2026-05-09 | — | 80 | — |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Most Red Cards: Mikel Merino −49pp 50→1¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Most Assists: Michael Olise −48pp 53→5¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Most Red Cards: Mikel Merino +47pp 3→50¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Most Red Cards: Robert Andrich −45pp 48→3¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · Most Red Cards: Robert Andrich +44pp 3→47¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This represents the probability that a single entity (currently leading at 50%) will win the 2026 UEFA Champions League tournament. The market reflects genuine uncertainty, with the top contender's price driven by Bayern Munich and PSG both trading at 32 cents as potential winners, while Atlético Madrid shows meaningful backing across both winner and finalist contracts. Arsenal's high price (71 cents) as a finalist but low price (absent from winner markets) suggests traders see them as a likely finalist but underdog champion. The main drivers are squad composition for the 2025-26 season, injury status of key players, and managerial stability entering the campaign. The 2026 competition runs January through June, with the final scheduled for May 31, 2026. Early qualifier draws and group stage results through March 2026 will provide the first real test of these valuations, as pre-season tournaments and transfer windows resolve more information about team strength.

### Key factors

- Bayern Munich and PSG both trade at 32¢ as winners, suggesting roughly equal perceived probability despite different recent European performance
- Arsenal's 71¢ finalist price versus near-zero winner price indicates markets see them as likely semifinalists but significant underdogs to win the title
- Atlético Madrid finalist contract (30¢) trades at premium to winner contract (9¢), suggesting strong defensive setup and knockout viability but lower attacking projection
- Trading volume concentrates heavily on Bayern winner (73k 24h vol) and Arsenal finalist (28k 24h vol), showing retail participation drives price but may lack institutional depth
- Pre-season transfers, injury developments, and confirmed squads for 2025-26 season remain unresolved and could shift probabilities materially before competition starts

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/uefa-champions-league
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=uefa-champions-league

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.