# UEFA Europa Conference League

> Most Assists: Carlo Holse leads at 78%, runner-up 78% across 20 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/uefa-europa-conference-league
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:40.545Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-28

## Headline

- Leader: Most Assists: Carlo Holse at 78%
- Runner-up: Top Scorer: Ismaïla Sarr at 78%
- Outcomes: 20 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $537

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most Assists: Carlo Holse | 78¢ | ±0 | $60 | polymarket | /markets/uefa-europa-conference-league-most-assists-carlo-h-polymarket-0x5ce53a4eb1a29628fd6c837e7b5f1338d4b27f0ad3a57f9dff1cae60ed28e618 |
| Top Scorer: Ismaïla Sarr | 78¢ | +9pp | $10 | polymarket | /markets/uefa-europa-conference-league-top-scorer-ismala-sa-polymarket-0x703b0fc9fc7f2a2d0f3a162a5129a1e8818cc00192cfbdd349920cc927769b2a |
| Winner: Crystal Palace | 64¢ | +9pp | $350 | polymarket | /markets/uefa-europa-conference-league-winner-crystal-palac-polymarket-0x34b2d318f7329958cc6368064fe04a69769b527fb8fc39b66a23b41d68d66355 |
| Most Red Cards: Pep Chavarría | 49¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/uefa-europa-conference-league-most-red-cards-pep-c-polymarket-0xdd306dca064d34ca5b361d3e52d94a98b184c26014ed5eed49b4a24d71b8c98c |
| Most Red Cards: Joseph Mbong | 49¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/uefa-europa-conference-league-most-red-cards-josep-polymarket-0x6e6477d97db8fa3f07ff26279fc554421e5b9232d13f047a17d9360225f4e91e |
| Most Cards: Borna Sosa | 49¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/uefa-europa-conference-league-most-cards-borna-sos-polymarket-0xce0cfea76838efaf06bb7ed89639f111f12c2abb3a5c462c8b241f92112d5b22 |
| Most Cards: Pathé Ismaël Ciss | 49¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/uefa-europa-conference-league-most-cards-path-isma-polymarket-0x59d6d6b683d843e37c046d33dda4199cf18c238d9ffd8a1e10a6e71593c65e6f |
| Most Cards: Pep Chavarría | 49¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/uefa-europa-conference-league-most-cards-pep-chava-polymarket-0xa3049d4792417856ef77456b3fe98383d663f10493e2ce3b191930b4d8104853 |
| Most Cards: Cher Ndour | 49¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/uefa-europa-conference-league-most-cards-cher-ndou-polymarket-0x0d87dc525bb6e0cadb4739f90abfe2b97c43d4f3f5256736468d17d99733e9c0 |
| Most Yellow Cards: Cher Ndour | 48¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/uefa-europa-conference-league-most-yellow-cards-ch-polymarket-0x92c45361cb647bc831401b62a8e692e7b0e5a414575033f05c921f89b4eca934 |
| Most Goal Contributions: Marius Mouandilmadji | 46¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/uefa-europa-conference-league-most-goal-contributi-polymarket-0x8840b9ee7fb7b338f976f3e0312ea8aa0ca271233ab4ff413a24c72182bbcdf4 |
| Most Red Cards: Borna Sosa | 46¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/uefa-europa-conference-league-most-red-cards-borna-polymarket-0x7a1190ac38d1631a2b80d34ab6d30fea3753496d736ebe0405c2ee968fabd40f |
| Most Goal Contributions: Ismaïla Sarr | 45¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/uefa-europa-conference-league-most-goal-contributi-polymarket-0x440fc359d33c663b6917da1b350e374c781229971dc60104548ae02f0441d4c9 |
| Most Assists: Yéremy Pino | 44¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/uefa-europa-conference-league-most-assists-yremy-p-polymarket-0xadbe360913777c7b83745cc3103c386e602b0f9b51900bcc0f0702169e6a23f4 |
| Most Yellow Cards: Pathé Ismaël Ciss | 43¢ | −5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/uefa-europa-conference-league-most-yellow-cards-pa-polymarket-0xe64702f90c4891ace872d4c638eb4275da7a29a7275122d5060204c145e5c17a |
| Most Assists: Kees Smit | 40¢ | −9pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/uefa-europa-conference-league-most-assists-kees-sm-polymarket-0x26204ee6e57dd702ce575ec6187e753b47504cd950968bb86744bd9af1ae39a7 |
| Winner: Rayo Vallecano | 37¢ | +6pp | $118 | polymarket | /markets/uefa-europa-conference-league-winner-rayo-vallecan-polymarket-0x1adaded007dd7aef3c0d6cbd779c92eb6019aedffea2080a2b2c3cbe88edec4e |
| Most Assists: Álvaro García | 32¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/uefa-europa-conference-league-most-assists-lvaro-g-polymarket-0x96597ccce94fb0edfd81db616532cbb07cc838833db1978795b2998d7fb6a341 |
| Most Assists: Jean-Philippe Mateta | 27¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/uefa-europa-conference-league-most-assists-jean-ph-polymarket-0x9c7c235b3bd3a4b061b030a5b84d7201189fd07f35199ef8d68115ee3c2b57a2 |
| Most Goal Contributions: Álvaro García | 25¢ | −23pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/uefa-europa-conference-league-most-goal-contributi-polymarket-0x040307faf5552c219792af2c2bf3b23abc285151b303fa3465fa6cb05d0c3e4b |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Most Assists: Carlo Holse | Top Scorer: Ismaïla Sarr | Winner: Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 45 | 14 | 35 |
| 2026-04-25 | 48 | — | 45 |
| 2026-04-28 | 50 | 43 | 50 |
| 2026-05-02 | 50 | 46 | 62 |
| 2026-05-06 | 49 | 45 | 62 |
| 2026-05-08 | — | 60 | 64 |

_27 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-08 · Most Goal Contributions: Álvaro García −23pp 48→25¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Winner: Rayo Vallecano +13pp 19→32¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · Winner: Crystal Palace +9pp 55→64¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · Top Scorer: Ismaïla Sarr +9pp 51→60¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Most Assists: Kees Smit −9pp 49→40¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

The 95% probability indicates that traders believe Crystal Palace has a very high likelihood of reaching the UEFA Europa Conference League final. This reflects Palace's current tournament position and remaining fixture difficulty relative to other contenders. The probability is driven primarily by Palace's competitive strength in their semifinal matchup and the relative weakness of remaining opponents. Volume concentration in the reaching-final contract ($91 in 24h volume) suggests active trading around Palace's semifinal progression. The next major catalyst will be the completion of Palace's semifinal tie, which would either confirm their advancement or dramatically shift probabilities toward Strasbourg, Rayo Vallecano, or other alternatives currently priced lower.

### Key factors

- Crystal Palace's semifinal opponent strength and current form relative to other qualified teams
- The 33-point gap between the reach-final contract (95¢) and the outright winner contract (62¢) indicates substantial uncertainty about Palace winning the tournament once there
- Strasbourg and Rayo Vallecano combined trade at only 101¢ for reaching the final, suggesting they are heavily discounted relative to Palace
- Trading volume of $91 in 24 hours concentrated on the reach-final outcome indicates this is the primary uncertainty being priced
- Palace's semifinal result represents the immediate binary event that would most significantly alter the probability landscape

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/uefa-europa-conference-league
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=uefa-europa-conference-league

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