# Will England win the 2028 UEFA Euros

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 8% across 11 contracts — refreshed 45 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/uefaeuro
Updated: 2026-07-27T06:20:50.566Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2028-08-15

## Headline

- Probability: 8% (liquidity-weighted across 11 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (11 contracts)
- 24h volume: $339

## Bound contracts (11)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 17¢ | ±0 | $183 | kalshi | /markets/will-spain-win-the-2028-uefa-euros-spain-kalshi-kxuefaeuro-28-esp |
| England | 16¢ | −1pp | $110 | kalshi | /markets/will-england-win-the-2028-uefa-euros-england-kalshi-kxuefaeuro-28-eng |
| France | 13¢ | +1pp | $35 | kalshi | /markets/will-france-win-the-2028-uefa-euros-france-kalshi-kxuefaeuro-28-fra |
| Italy | 3¢ | +1pp | $6 | kalshi | /markets/will-italy-win-the-2028-uefa-euros-italy-kalshi-kxuefaeuro-28-ita |
| Portugal | 7¢ | +1pp | $4 | kalshi | /markets/will-portugal-win-the-2028-uefa-euros-portugal-kalshi-kxuefaeuro-28-por |
| Poland | 4¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-poland-win-the-2028-uefa-euros-poland-kalshi-kxuefaeuro-28-pol |
| Netherlands | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-netherlands-win-the-2028-uefa-euros-netherlan-kalshi-kxuefaeuro-28-ned |
| Germany | 11¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-germany-win-the-2028-uefa-euros-germany-kalshi-kxuefaeuro-28-ger |
| Croatia | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-croatia-win-the-2028-uefa-euros-croatia-kalshi-kxuefaeuro-28-cro |
| Norway | 4¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-norway-win-the-2028-uefa-euros-norway-kalshi-kxuefaeuro-28-nor |
| Ireland | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ireland-win-the-2028-uefa-euros-ireland-kalshi-kxuefaeuro-28-irl |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | 2 |
| 2026-07-20 | 8 |
| 2026-07-27 | 9 |

_10 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-20 · Spain +7pp 10→17¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-20 · France +6pp 2→8¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-21 · England +4pp 12→16¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-22 · Spain −3pp 19→16¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-21 · France +3pp 8→11¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The 15% probability reflects market pricing for England to win the 2028 UEFA Euros, a tournament held once every four years and scheduled for 2028. England's implied odds place them as a mid-tier contender, below favorites like Spain and Germany based on available market data. The current valuation likely reflects England's recent tournament performances—reaching the Euro 2024 final and the 2020 Euro final—balanced against squad composition changes, player aging, and competitive depth in European football. Key uncertainties include injury trajectories of core players, managerial continuity, and how squad development compares to rival nations over the next 18 months. The 2028 Euros themselves will serve as the resolution event, though significant shifts could occur during qualifying matches, winter transfer windows, and international friendlies leading up to June 2028.

### Key factors

- England's current squad age and expected form in 2028, particularly for players central to recent tournament runs like Harry Kane, Declan Rice, and Jude Bellingham
- Managerial stability and tactical adaptation; Gareth Southgate's departure and successor's track record will influence tournament preparation and strategy
- Injury prevalence among key players during the 2027-28 season, which directly impacts squad availability and match fitness entering the tournament
- Spain and Germany showing lower trading prices (10¢) suggests market consensus they are stronger favorites; relative strength of competing nations affects England's winning probability
- England's performance in 2026 World Cup qualifying matches and 2027 friendlies will provide concrete data on form and player development, potentially shifting market probabilities substantially

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/uefaeuro
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=uefaeuro

## License

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