# Freiburg vs Braga

> Closed. Last odds frozen 21 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/uel1h
Updated: 2026-05-08T06:50:30.901Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-21

## Headline

- Probability: 32% (liquidity-weighted across 6 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $5K

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| First Half Winner?: Nottingham | 17¢ | ±0 | $2K | kalshi | /markets/aston-villa-vs-nottingham-first-half-winner-nottin-kalshi-kxuel1h-26may07avlnfo-nfo |
| First Half Winner?: Freiburg | 39¢ | ±0 | $1K | kalshi | /markets/freiburg-vs-braga-first-half-winner-freiburg-kalshi-kxuel1h-26may07scfbra-scf |
| First Half Winner?: Braga | 16¢ | ±0 | $974 | kalshi | /markets/freiburg-vs-braga-first-half-winner-braga-kalshi-kxuel1h-26may07scfbra-bra |
| First Half Winner?: Aston Villa | 39¢ | ±0 | $666 | kalshi | /markets/aston-villa-vs-nottingham-first-half-winner-aston-kalshi-kxuel1h-26may07avlnfo-avl |
| First Half Winner?: Tie | 40¢ | ±0 | $200 | kalshi | /markets/aston-villa-vs-nottingham-first-half-winner-tie-kalshi-kxuel1h-26may07avlnfo-tie |
| First Half Winner?: Tie | 41¢ | ±0 | $85 | kalshi | /markets/freiburg-vs-braga-first-half-winner-tie-kalshi-kxuel1h-26may07scfbra-tie |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 29 |
| 2026-05-02 | 32 |
| 2026-05-07 | 32 |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · First Half Winner?: Freiburg +4pp 35→39¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · First Half Winner?: Aston Villa +4pp 35→39¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · First Half Winner?: Tie +3pp 38→41¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 29% probability reflects the current market expectation that Freiburg will win this matchup. The price stems from comparing the relative strength of German Bundesliga-based Freiburg against Portuguese Primeira Liga side Braga, with factors like home-field advantage, recent form, and head-to-head history informing the odds. The contract will resolve when the match concludes; timing and location of the fixture would directly impact the outcome. Market liquidity is concentrated on the full-match winner contracts rather than first-half bets, suggesting most traders are focused on the overall result rather than early-game momentum.

### Key factors

- Freiburg's Bundesliga standing and recent league performance versus Braga's position in the Portuguese top division
- Home advantage if the match is played in Germany, or neutral/away considerations if held elsewhere
- Head-to-head historical record between the two clubs and their European competition experience
- Injury status and squad availability for both teams leading into the fixture date
- The specific match context: whether this is a knockout, group stage, or other competition format that affects tactical approach

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/uel1h
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=uel1h

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.