# Freiburg vs Braga

> Closed. Last odds frozen 21 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ueladvance
Updated: 2026-05-08T06:50:30.901Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-06-04

## Headline

- Probability: 49% (liquidity-weighted across 4 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $11K

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 46¢ | +5pp | $7K | kalshi | /markets/aston-villa-vs-nottingham-aston-villa-kalshi-kxueladvance-26may07avlnfo-avl |
| Freiburg | 45¢ | +3pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/freiburg-vs-braga-freiburg-kalshi-kxueladvance-26may07scfbra-scf |
| Nottingham | 52¢ | +2pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/aston-villa-vs-nottingham-nottingham-kalshi-kxueladvance-26may07avlnfo-nfo |
| Braga | 53¢ | +3pp | $755 | kalshi | /markets/freiburg-vs-braga-braga-kalshi-kxueladvance-26may07scfbra-bra |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | 46 |
| 2026-05-07 | 49 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Aston Villa +5pp 42→47¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Freiburg +3pp 42→45¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Braga +3pp 50→53¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 47% probability indicates the market's current assessment that Freiburg will win their match against Braga. The probability reflects expectations about team form, head-to-head records, and home-field advantage if applicable. Key drivers of this probability include recent performance trends for both teams in their respective leagues, injury or suspension status of key players, and historical matchup outcomes. The primary catalyst resolving this uncertainty will be the scheduled match itself, which determines the final outcome and closes the contract.

### Key factors

- Freiburg's current league position and recent win-loss record compared to Braga's standing in their competition
- Historical head-to-head results between these teams and their performance in European or relevant competitions
- Availability of key players—injuries, suspensions, or roster changes for either squad heading into the match
- Home vs. away performance differential for both teams this season
- Betting market liquidity and volume on this contract, which at $0 24h volume suggests minimal recent trading activity

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ueladvance
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ueladvance

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.