# Nottingham vs Aston Villa Winner

> Closed. Last odds frozen 21 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/uelgame
Updated: 2026-05-08T06:50:30.901Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-21

## Headline

- Probability: 33% (liquidity-weighted across 6 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $161K

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham | 20¢ | ±0 | $71K | kalshi | /markets/aston-villa-vs-nottingham-winner-nottingham-kalshi-kxuelgame-26may07avlnfo-nfo |
| Aston Villa | 55¢ | +1pp | $46K | kalshi | /markets/aston-villa-vs-nottingham-winner-aston-villa-kalshi-kxuelgame-26may07avlnfo-avl |
| Braga | 19¢ | −1pp | $31K | kalshi | /markets/freiburg-vs-braga-winner-braga-kalshi-kxuelgame-26may07scfbra-bra |
| Freiburg | 55¢ | +3pp | $6K | kalshi | /markets/freiburg-vs-braga-winner-freiburg-kalshi-kxuelgame-26may07scfbra-scf |
| Tie | 23¢ | ±0 | $6K | kalshi | /markets/aston-villa-vs-nottingham-winner-tie-kalshi-kxuelgame-26may07avlnfo-tie |
| Tie | 25¢ | +6pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/freiburg-vs-braga-winner-tie-kalshi-kxuelgame-26may07scfbra-tie |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 21 |
| 2026-05-02 | 38 |
| 2026-05-07 | 35 |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Aston Villa +3pp 51→54¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Freiburg +3pp 49→52¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Freiburg +3pp 52→55¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/uelgame
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=uelgame

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.