# Freiburg wins by over 1.5 goals

> Closed. Last odds frozen 21 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/uelspread
Updated: 2026-05-08T06:50:30.901Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-21

## Headline

- Probability: 16% (liquidity-weighted across 6 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $14K

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham wins by over 1.5 goals | 6¢ | +4pp | $6K | kalshi | /markets/nottingham-wins-by-over-15-goals-nottingham-wins-b-kalshi-kxuelspread-26may07avlnfo-nfo1 |
| Aston Villa wins by over 1.5 goals | 30¢ | −1pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/aston-villa-wins-by-over-15-goals-aston-villa-wins-kalshi-kxuelspread-26may07avlnfo-avl1 |
| Braga wins by over 1.5 goals | 5¢ | +3pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/braga-wins-by-over-15-goals-braga-wins-by-over-15-kalshi-kxuelspread-26may07scfbra-bra1 |
| Freiburg wins by over 2.5 goals | 12¢ | ±0 | $528 | kalshi | /markets/freiburg-wins-by-over-25-goals-freiburg-wins-by-ov-kalshi-kxuelspread-26may07scfbra-scf2 |
| Freiburg wins by over 1.5 goals | 29¢ | ±0 | $447 | kalshi | /markets/freiburg-wins-by-over-15-goals-freiburg-wins-by-ov-kalshi-kxuelspread-26may07scfbra-scf1 |
| Aston Villa wins by over 2.5 goals | 13¢ | +7pp | $6 | kalshi | /markets/aston-villa-wins-by-over-25-goals-aston-villa-wins-kalshi-kxuelspread-26may07avlnfo-avl2 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 2 |
| 2026-05-02 | 10 |
| 2026-05-07 | 16 |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Freiburg wins by over 2.5 goals +8pp 4→12¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Aston Villa wins by over 2.5 goals +7pp 5→12¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Aston Villa wins by over 1.5 goals +5pp 25→30¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Freiburg wins by over 1.5 goals +5pp 24→29¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Nottingham wins by over 1.5 goals +4pp 2→6¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/uelspread
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=uelspread

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.