# Aston Villa at Nottingham

> Closed. Last odds frozen 21 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ueltotal
Updated: 2026-05-08T06:50:30.901Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-21

## Headline

- Probability: 41% (liquidity-weighted across 8 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $7K

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored | 51¢ | +1pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/nottingham-at-aston-villa-totals-over-25-goals-sco-kalshi-kxueltotal-26may07avlnfo-2 |
| Totals: Over 3.5 goals scored | 28¢ | ±0 | $1K | kalshi | /markets/nottingham-at-aston-villa-totals-over-35-goals-sco-kalshi-kxueltotal-26may07avlnfo-3 |
| Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored | 48¢ | +1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/braga-at-freiburg-totals-over-25-goals-scored-kalshi-kxueltotal-26may07scfbra-2 |
| Totals: Over 4.5 goals scored | 13¢ | ±0 | $983 | kalshi | /markets/nottingham-at-aston-villa-totals-over-45-goals-sco-kalshi-kxueltotal-26may07avlnfo-4 |
| Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored | 76¢ | +1pp | $640 | kalshi | /markets/nottingham-at-aston-villa-totals-over-15-goals-sco-kalshi-kxueltotal-26may07avlnfo-1 |
| Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored | 73¢ | ±0 | $393 | kalshi | /markets/braga-at-freiburg-totals-over-15-goals-scored-kalshi-kxueltotal-26may07scfbra-1 |
| Totals: Over 4.5 goals scored | 11¢ | ±0 | $200 | kalshi | /markets/braga-at-freiburg-totals-over-45-goals-scored-kalshi-kxueltotal-26may07scfbra-4 |
| Totals: Over 3.5 goals scored | 25¢ | +13pp | $188 | kalshi | /markets/braga-at-freiburg-totals-over-35-goals-scored-kalshi-kxueltotal-26may07scfbra-3 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 6 |
| 2026-05-02 | 23 |
| 2026-05-07 | 41 |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Totals: Over 3.5 goals scored +20pp 3→23¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Totals: Over 3.5 goals scored +13pp 12→25¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Totals: Over 4.5 goals scored +9pp 4→13¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Totals: Over 4.5 goals scored +9pp 2→11¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored +7pp 68→75¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ueltotal
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ueltotal

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.