# Who will be the Bantamweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026

> Petr Yan leads at 54%, runner-up 36% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 13 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ufcbantamweighttitle
Updated: 2026-08-10T07:20:52.069Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: Petr Yan at 54%
- Runner-up: Merab Dvalishvili at 36%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $683

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Petr Yan | 54¢ | +1pp | $259 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-the-bantamweight-title-holder-on-dec-3-kalshi-kxufcbantamweighttitle-26-pyan |
| Merab Dvalishvili | 36¢ | +7pp | $400 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-the-bantamweight-title-holder-on-dec-3-kalshi-kxufcbantamweighttitle-26-mdva |
| Umar Nurmagomedov | 3¢ | ±0 | $23 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-the-bantamweight-title-holder-on-dec-3-kalshi-kxufcbantamweighttitle-26-unur |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Petr Yan | Merab Dvalishvili | Umar Nurmagomedov |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | 36 | — | — |
| 2026-07-12 | 32 | 18 | — |
| 2026-07-17 | 40 | 33 | 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | 63 | 27 | — |
| 2026-07-28 | 62 | 30 | 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | 54 | 16 | — |
| 2026-08-04 | 58 | 20 | 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | 55 | 30 | 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | — | 37 | — |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-05 · Merab Dvalishvili +12pp 20→32¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-03 · Merab Dvalishvili −11pp 27→16¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-10 · Merab Dvalishvili +7pp 30→37¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-05 · Petr Yan −6pp 58→52¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-04 · Merab Dvalishvili +4pp 16→20¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The 21% probability indicates that one specific fighter is currently favored to hold the UFC Bantamweight title on December 31, 2026, though with substantial uncertainty across five potential contenders. The current leader's advantage likely reflects recent performance, ranking position, or recent title status, while the fragmented probabilities—with a runner-up at only 8%—suggest multiple viable paths to the title over the next seven months. Key factors driving this assessment include the current title holder's injury history and willingness to compete, the challenger pipeline's strength and fight scheduling, and the UFC's promotional decisions around booking and timing. Title fights are typically scheduled several months in advance, so the most significant near-term catalyst would be official fight announcements or injuries to current or leading contenders that would reshape the competitive landscape.

### Key factors

- Current bantamweight champion's injury status and stated competition timeline through December 2026
- Ranking and readiness of top challengers to secure and win a title shot within the next seven months
- UFC's historical scheduling patterns for bantamweight title defenses and whether a title fight is already booked
- Recent fight outcomes and momentum of the leading contender versus other top-ranked competitors
- Any contractual or promotional factors affecting fighter availability or priority in the division

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ufcbantamweighttitle
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ufcbantamweighttitle

## License

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