# Who will be the Featherweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026

> Alexander Volkanovski leads at 51%, runner-up 44% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 23 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ufcfeatherweighttitle
Updated: 2026-08-26T10:20:49.173Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: Alexander Volkanovski at 51%
- Runner-up: Movsar Evloev at 44%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $27

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkanovski | 51¢ | ±0 | $27 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-the-featherweight-title-holder-on-dec-kalshi-kxufcfeatherweighttitle-26-avol |
| Movsar Evloev | 44¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-the-featherweight-title-holder-on-dec-kalshi-kxufcfeatherweighttitle-26-mevl |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Alexander Volkanovski | Movsar Evloev |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | 48 | 38 |
| 2026-08-11 | — | 40 |
| 2026-08-12 | 43 | — |
| 2026-08-19 | 52 | 45 |
| 2026-08-24 | 51 | 44 |
| 2026-08-25 | — | 44 |

_27 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This market reflects a 32% probability that a specific fighter (Alexander Volkanovski) will hold the UFC featherweight title on December 31, 2026. The current leader commands nearly double the runner-up's probability, suggesting market participants view this outcome as plausible but not favored. The price is driven by factors including Volkanovski's current title status, injury history, and the competitive depth of the featherweight division. Key variables that would shift this probability include upcoming title fights scheduled before year-end, injury announcements, and performance results of challengers. The main resolution catalyst will be the outcomes of featherweight title bouts occurring between now and December 31, 2026, with any vacating, loss, or long-term injury potentially eliminating this outcome entirely.

### Key factors

- Volkanovski's recent injury history and recovery timeline relative to potential title defenses before December 31, 2026
- Number and timing of scheduled featherweight title fights in the second half of 2026
- Performance and momentum of top-ranked featherweight contenders who could challenge for the title
- Whether Volkanovski retains or loses the title in any scheduled bouts before the end of 2026
- The 15% probability assigned to the runner-up outcome, indicating meaningful uncertainty about who holds the title on year-end

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ufcfeatherweighttitle
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ufcfeatherweighttitle

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.