# Will Francis Marshall win the Marshall vs Brennan professional MMA fight scheduled for Apr 25, 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 48% across 20 contracts — refreshed 22 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ufcfight
Updated: 2026-06-26T06:20:50.478Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-26

## Headline

- Probability: 48% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $304K
- Resolved: Arnold Allen

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conor McGregor | 34¢ | ±0 | $182K | kalshi | /markets/will-conor-mcgregor-win-the-conor-mcgregor-vs-max-kalshi-kxufcfight-26jul11mcghol-mcg |
| Theodor Berggren | 20¢ | −1pp | $17K | kalshi | /markets/will-theodor-berggren-win-the-donchenko-vs-berggre-kalshi-kxufcfight-26jun27donber-ber |
| Max Holloway | 66¢ | +1pp | $15K | kalshi | /markets/will-max-holloway-win-the-conor-mcgregor-vs-max-ho-kalshi-kxufcfight-26jul11mcghol-hol |
| Manuel Torres | 51¢ | +1pp | $14K | kalshi | /markets/will-manuel-torres-win-the-fiziev-vs-torres-profes-kalshi-kxufcfight-26jun27fiztor-tor |
| Rafael Fiziev | 49¢ | ±0 | $14K | kalshi | /markets/will-rafael-fiziev-win-the-fiziev-vs-torres-profes-kalshi-kxufcfight-26jun27fiztor-fiz |
| Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev | 83¢ | +1pp | $9K | kalshi | /markets/will-abdul-rakhman-yakhyaev-win-the-yakhyaev-vs-wa-kalshi-kxufcfight-26jun27yakwal-yak |
| Julius Walker | 17¢ | −1pp | $8K | kalshi | /markets/will-julius-walker-win-the-yakhyaev-vs-walker-prof-kalshi-kxufcfight-26jun27yakwal-wal |
| Javier Reyes | 65¢ | +4pp | $6K | kalshi | /markets/will-javier-reyes-win-the-ofli-vs-reyes-profession-kalshi-kxufcfight-26jun27oflrey-rey |
| Michel Pereira | 24¢ | ±0 | $5K | kalshi | /markets/will-michel-pereira-win-the-magomedov-vs-pereira-p-kalshi-kxufcfight-26jun27magper-per |
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 49¢ | −2pp | $5K | kalshi | /markets/will-abusupiyan-magomedov-win-the-magomedov-vs-ole-kalshi-kxufcfight-26jun27magole-mag |
| Charles Johnson | 27¢ | −2pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-charles-johnson-win-the-almabayev-vs-johnson-kalshi-kxufcfight-26jun27almjoh-joh |
| Jean Matsumoto | 58¢ | ±0 | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-jean-matsumoto-win-the-almakhan-vs-matsumoto-kalshi-kxufcfight-26jun27almmat-mat |
| Jefferson Nascimento | 51¢ | +4pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-jefferson-nascimento-win-the-abdullayev-vs-na-kalshi-kxufcfight-26jun27abdnas-nas |
| Asu Almabayev | 72¢ | ±0 | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-asu-almabayev-win-the-almabayev-vs-johnson-pr-kalshi-kxufcfight-26jun27almjoh-alm |
| Brunno Ferreira | 29¢ | −1pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-brunno-ferreira-win-the-aliskerov-vs-ferreira-kalshi-kxufcfight-26jun27alifer-fer |
| Eric Nolan | 38¢ | −1pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-eric-nolan-win-the-hasanov-vs-nolan-professio-kalshi-kxufcfight-26jun27hasnol-nol |
| Sharabutdin Magomedov | 76¢ | ±0 | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-sharabutdin-magomedov-win-the-magomedov-vs-pe-kalshi-kxufcfight-26jun27magper-mag |
| Tahir Abdullayev | 47¢ | −4pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-tahir-abdullayev-win-the-abdullayev-vs-nascim-kalshi-kxufcfight-26jun27abdnas-abd |
| Ikram Aliskerov | 71¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-ikram-aliskerov-win-the-aliskerov-vs-ferreira-kalshi-kxufcfight-26jun27alifer-ali |
| Matheus Camilo | 34¢ | +3pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-matheus-camilo-win-the-sadykhov-vs-camilo-pro-kalshi-kxufcfight-26jun27sadcam-cam |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 30 |
| 2026-06-12 | 31 |
| 2026-06-19 | 50 |
| 2026-06-26 | 54 |

_27 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-22 · Jefferson Nascimento +29pp 34→63¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · Jefferson Nascimento −23pp 63→40¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · Tahir Abdullayev +21pp 33→54¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Jefferson Nascimento +5pp 40→45¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-26 · Javier Reyes +4pp 61→65¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market reflects traders' assessment that Francis Marshall has roughly even odds of defeating Brennan in their scheduled April 25, 2026 MMA fight. The 48% probability suggests the match is viewed as competitive, though slightly favoring Brennan. Factors influencing this level include each fighter's recent performance record, head-to-head matchup dynamics, and any physical or stylistic advantages. The fight itself on April 25 will provide definitive resolution—the outcome depends on how the bout plays out in real time across multiple rounds. Marshall would need to execute his strategy effectively against Brennan's specific strengths to move from slight underdog to victor. Current contract volume and Kalshi pricing suggest moderate but not exceptionally high trader interest in this particular matchup compared to other scheduled fights.

### Key factors

- Marshall's recent fight results and win-loss record relative to Brennan's comparable statistics
- Stylistic matchup dynamics, including striking range, grappling ability, and cardio profiles of both fighters
- Injury status or training camp updates for either fighter prior to April 25
- Head-to-head record if fighters have previously competed, or comparable opponent records if this is a new matchup
- Betting volume and price movement on Kalshi contracts relative to similar MMA fights, indicating trader confidence level

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ufcfight
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ufcfight

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.