# Who will hold the UFC Flyweight Title title on Dec 31, 2026

> Alexandre Pantoja leads at 49%, runner-up 49% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 13 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ufcflyweighttitle
Updated: 2026-08-10T07:20:49.644Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: Alexandre Pantoja at 49%
- Runner-up: Joshua Van at 49%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandre Pantoja | 49¢ | +3pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/who-will-hold-the-ufc-flyweight-title-title-on-dec-kalshi-kxufcflyweighttitle-26-apan |
| Joshua Van | 49¢ | +1pp | $543 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-hold-the-ufc-flyweight-title-title-on-dec-kalshi-kxufcflyweighttitle-26-jvan |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Alexandre Pantoja | Joshua Van |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | 27 | 42 |
| 2026-07-27 | 49 | 42 |
| 2026-08-03 | 52 | 39 |
| 2026-08-09 | 43 | 53 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-04 · Alexandre Pantoja −10pp 52→42¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-08 · Alexandre Pantoja −8pp 48→40¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-06 · Joshua Van +6pp 39→45¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-07 · Joshua Van +5pp 45→50¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-03 · Alexandre Pantoja +4pp 48→52¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The current 33% probability reflects the market's assessment that a specific fighter will hold the UFC Flyweight Championship on December 31, 2026. With approximately eight months until year-end, the outcome depends on the current champion's injury history, scheduled title defenses, and the strength of the challenger pool. The main driver of this probability is uncertainty around how many title fights will occur and whether the defending champion can successfully retain through the end of the year. The most significant catalyst will be any announced title fight schedule for the flyweight division in the coming months, which typically determines whether a bout occurs before year-end. Changes in fighter injury status or promotional priorities could shift this probability substantially.

### Key factors

- Number and timing of scheduled flyweight title defenses between now and December 31, 2026
- Current champion's injury history and availability relative to typical UFC scheduling patterns
- Strength and ranking progression of available challengers in the flyweight division
- Historical retention rates for the current titleholder in championship bouts
- UFC's promotional calendar and priority given to flyweight division matchups versus other weight classes

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ufcflyweighttitle
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ufcflyweighttitle

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.