# Who will be the Heavyweight Title on Dec 31, 2026

> Tom Aspinall leads at 36%, runner-up 31% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 49 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ufcheavyweighttitle
Updated: 2026-06-28T03:20:49.863Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: Tom Aspinall at 36%
- Runner-up: Ciryl Gane at 31%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $267

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Aspinall | 36¢ | −2pp | $77 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-the-heavyweight-title-on-dec-31-2026-t-kalshi-kxufcheavyweighttitle-26-tasp |
| Ciryl Gane | 31¢ | −4pp | $121 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-the-heavyweight-title-on-dec-31-2026-c-kalshi-kxufcheavyweighttitle-26-cgan |
| Josh Hokit | 10¢ | +2pp | $68 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-the-heavyweight-title-on-dec-31-2026-j-kalshi-kxufcheavyweighttitle-26-jhok |
| Waldo Cortes Acosta | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-the-heavyweight-title-on-dec-31-2026-w-kalshi-kxufcheavyweighttitle-26-waco |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Tom Aspinall | Ciryl Gane | Josh Hokit |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | 34 | — | — |
| 2026-05-30 | 32 | 13 | 4 |
| 2026-06-14 | 40 | 14 | 7 |
| 2026-06-21 | 45 | 39 | 2 |
| 2026-06-26 | 54 | 26 | 9 |
| 2026-06-27 | 52 | — | — |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-22 · Ciryl Gane −16pp 39→23¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-26 · Tom Aspinall +16pp 38→54¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · Tom Aspinall −9pp 45→36¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · Ciryl Gane +7pp 23→30¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Tom Aspinall −7pp 41→34¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 25% probability indicates roughly one-in-four odds that a specific fighter will hold the UFC Heavyweight Title on December 31, 2026. The current market leader reflects expectations based on the fighter's recent performance, injury status, and position in the title contention rankings. Movement in this probability would likely follow significant fight outcomes—wins advancing a contender toward a title shot, or losses eliminating them from contention. The primary catalyst for resolution will be championship fights scheduled between now and year-end; any injury, upset result, or title vacancy would substantially shift these odds. Secondary factors include interim title creations and unexpected retirements that could alter the competitive landscape.

### Key factors

- Current title holder's health status and scheduled title defense dates through December 2026
- Win-loss record and strength of schedule for leading contenders in the heavyweight rankings
- Historical frequency of title changes in the heavyweight division during comparable time windows
- Interim title creation likelihood, which could fragment the holder landscape
- Major injuries or retirements announced among top-5 ranked contenders

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ufcheavyweighttitle
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ufcheavyweighttitle

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.