# Who will be the Light Heavyweight Title on Dec 31, 2026

> Carlos Ulberg leads at 84%, runner-up 11% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 40 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ufclheavyweighttitle
Updated: 2026-07-27T07:20:48.753Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: Carlos Ulberg at 84%
- Runner-up: Magomed Ankalaev at 11%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $3K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Ulberg | 84¢ | +5pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-the-light-heavyweight-title-on-dec-31-kalshi-kxufclheavyweighttitle-26-culb |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 11¢ | −4pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-the-light-heavyweight-title-on-dec-31-kalshi-kxufclheavyweighttitle-26-mank |
| Khamzat Chimaev | 5¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-the-light-heavyweight-title-on-dec-31-kalshi-kxufclheavyweighttitle-26-kchi |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Carlos Ulberg | Magomed Ankalaev | Khamzat Chimaev |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-27 | 80 | 1 | — |
| 2026-06-28 | 80 | 3 | 3 |
| 2026-07-02 | 73 | 7 | 1 |
| 2026-07-12 | 75 | 8 | 2 |
| 2026-07-13 | 75 | 15 | — |
| 2026-07-17 | 75 | — | 5 |
| 2026-07-20 | 75 | 14 | — |
| 2026-07-27 | 85 | 11 | — |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-21 · Carlos Ulberg +8pp 75→83¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-20 · Carlos Ulberg −6pp 81→75¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-27 · Carlos Ulberg +5pp 80→85¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-27 · Magomed Ankalaev −4pp 15→11¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-25 · Carlos Ulberg +4pp 78→82¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This represents the market's assessment that Carlos Ulberg will hold the UFC Light Heavyweight title at year-end 2026, currently priced at 64%. Ulberg holds the current title, and the probability reflects expectations that he'll either successfully defend against challengers or avoid being dethroned over the next eight months. The main drivers are his current champion status and defensive capabilities weighed against potential challengers like Jiří Procházka (6% odds) and Magomed Ankalaev (14% odds). Title fights are typically scheduled months in advance, so upcoming UFC fight announcements will provide clarity on Ulberg's likely opponents and timeline for defense attempts. The single biggest catalyst is whether the UFC schedules and executes one or more title fights at 205 pounds before December 31st—if no defense occurs, Ulberg retains by default; if he loses or an interim title is created, the probability shifts substantially.

### Key factors

- Ulberg is the current Light Heavyweight champion, giving him a structural advantage reflected in the 64% baseline
- Procházka at 6% and Ankalaev at 14% represent the two primary alternative outcomes, suggesting limited consensus on a single challenger
- No scheduled title fight appears imminent based on the low trading volume ($334 for Procházka, $292 for Ankalaev), indicating uncertainty about fight timelines
- Title defense schedules in UFC typically get announced 6-12 weeks before events, so mid-2026 announcements will materially update probabilities
- Injuries, retirements, or interim title creation would alter the outcome structure and redistribute probability across remaining candidates

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ufclheavyweighttitle
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ufclheavyweighttitle

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.