# Who will be the Lightweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026

> Justin Gaethje leads at 79%, runner-up 12% across 6 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 24 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ufclightweighttitle
Updated: 2026-07-13T06:20:49.874Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: Justin Gaethje at 79%
- Runner-up: Ilia Topuria at 12%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $8K

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Gaethje | 79¢ | +7pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-the-lightweight-title-holder-on-dec-31-kalshi-kxufclightweighttitle-26-jgae |
| Ilia Topuria | 12¢ | +3pp | $241 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-the-lightweight-title-holder-on-dec-31-kalshi-kxufclightweighttitle-26-itop |
| Arman Tsarukyan | 10¢ | +2pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-the-lightweight-title-holder-on-dec-31-kalshi-kxufclightweighttitle-26-atsa |
| Paddy Pimblett | 5¢ | +2pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-the-lightweight-title-holder-on-dec-31-kalshi-kxufclightweighttitle-26-ppim |
| Islam Makhachev | 5¢ | +4pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-the-lightweight-title-holder-on-dec-31-kalshi-kxufclightweighttitle-26-imak |
| Charles Oliveira | 3¢ | −2pp | $936 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-the-lightweight-title-holder-on-dec-31-kalshi-kxufclightweighttitle-26-coli |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Justin Gaethje | Ilia Topuria | Arman Tsarukyan |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-13 | 11 | 57 | 21 |
| 2026-06-29 | 62 | 3 | 13 |
| 2026-07-06 | 71 | 4 | 15 |
| 2026-07-12 | 67 | 8 | 15 |
| 2026-07-13 | 74 | — | 17 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-08 · Justin Gaethje −12pp 72→60¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-09 · Justin Gaethje +8pp 60→68¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-10 · Justin Gaethje −8pp 68→60¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-12 · Paddy Pimblett −7pp 11→4¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-13 · Justin Gaethje +7pp 67→74¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates a 56% probability that one specific fighter will hold the UFC Lightweight title on December 31, 2026. The current leader, ITOP, has nearly 3.5x the probability of the runner-up at 16%, suggesting market confidence in a particular outcome. The lightweight division's title trajectory depends primarily on whether the current champion retains the belt through 2026 or loses it to a challenger. Major factors include scheduled title fights, injury status of top contenders, and the competitive ranking within the division. The market will face substantial resolution clarity at each title defense or change of hands occurring between now and year-end. Kalshi's three linked contracts indicate traders are pricing the full range of potential lightweight title holders rather than treating this as binary.

### Key factors

- Current lightweight champion's injury status and fight schedule through December 2026
- Number and quality of ranked challengers who could feasibly capture the title before year-end
- Timing of scheduled lightweight title defenses or championship bouts on the UFC calendar
- Historical retention rate for UFC lightweight champions over 8-month periods
- Market's pricing of the runner-up candidate (16%) versus ITOP leader (56%) implies specific fighter assumptions that can be validated against announced matchups

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ufclightweighttitle
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ufclightweighttitle

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.