# Who will be the Middleweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026

> Sean Strickland leads at 65%, runner-up 13% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 54 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ufcmiddleweighttitle
Updated: 2026-06-28T21:20:51.055Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: Sean Strickland at 65%
- Runner-up: Khamzat Chimaev at 13%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $944

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Strickland | 65¢ | +3pp | $148 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-the-middleweight-title-holder-on-dec-3-kalshi-kxufcmiddleweighttitle-26-sstr |
| Khamzat Chimaev | 13¢ | +1pp | $15 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-the-middleweight-title-holder-on-dec-3-kalshi-kxufcmiddleweighttitle-26-kchi |
| Nassourdine Imavov | 10¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-the-middleweight-title-holder-on-dec-3-kalshi-kxufcmiddleweighttitle-26-nima |
| Caio Borralho | 10¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-the-middleweight-title-holder-on-dec-3-kalshi-kxufcmiddleweighttitle-26-cbor |
| Dricus Du Plessis | 3¢ | −2pp | $780 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-the-middleweight-title-holder-on-dec-3-kalshi-kxufcmiddleweighttitle-26-dple |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Sean Strickland | Khamzat Chimaev | Nassourdine Imavov |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | 56 | 11 | 18 |
| 2026-06-14 | 56 | 11 | 16 |
| 2026-06-21 | 59 | 12 | 12 |
| 2026-06-26 | 56 | 12 | 12 |
| 2026-06-28 | 61 | — | 13 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-22 · Nassourdine Imavov +4pp 12→16¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Dricus Du Plessis +3pp 2→5¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · Sean Strickland +3pp 56→59¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-28 · Sean Strickland +3pp 58→61¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-26 · Nassourdine Imavov −3pp 15→12¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects the likelihood that Khamzat Chimaev will hold the UFC Middleweight title on December 31, 2026. At 65%, the market suggests better-than-even odds he retains or captures the belt by year-end, with Sean Strickland priced as the main alternative challenger at 20%. The current assessment appears driven by Chimaev's ranking position and perceived trajectory, though title outcomes depend heavily on injury status, fight scheduling, and performance in upcoming bouts. The primary uncertainty driver is whether Chimaev will secure and successfully defend a title bout within the seven-month window. Any significant injury, unexpected loss, or title fight cancellation would substantially shift these probabilities downward.

### Key factors

- Khamzat Chimaev's current ranking position and proximity to a title shot as of May 2026
- Sean Strickland's pricing at 20% suggests meaningful probability he either retains a title he holds or captures it before year-end
- UFC title fight scheduling and whether a middleweight championship bout is booked before December 31, 2026
- Injury history and fight availability for top contenders in the middleweight division during this period
- The number of viable contenders and whether any tier-one challenger emerges unexpectedly to displace current title prospects

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ufcmiddleweighttitle
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ufcmiddleweighttitle

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.