# Will Youssef Zalal win the Aljamain Sterling vs. Youssef Zalal UFC fight by KO/TKO/DQ?

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 18% across 16 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ufcmov
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:40.401Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-30

## Headline

- Probability: 18% (liquidity-weighted across 16 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (16 contracts)
- 24h volume: $124K

## Bound contracts (16)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Strickland by KO/TKO/DQ | 12¢ | — | $43K | kalshi | /markets/will-sean-strickland-win-the-khamzat-chimaev-vs-s-kalshi-kxufcmov-26may09chistr-strkotkodq |
| Sean Strickland by Decision | 8¢ | — | $32K | kalshi | /markets/will-sean-strickland-win-the-khamzat-chimaev-vs-s-kalshi-kxufcmov-26may09chistr-strdec |
| Khamzat Chimaev by Submission | 44¢ | — | $15K | kalshi | /markets/will-khamzat-chimaev-win-the-khamzat-chimaev-vs-s-kalshi-kxufcmov-26may09chistr-chisub |
| Khamzat Chimaev by Decision | 22¢ | — | $12K | kalshi | /markets/will-khamzat-chimaev-win-the-khamzat-chimaev-vs-s-kalshi-kxufcmov-26may09chistr-chidec |
| Khamzat Chimaev by KO/TKO/DQ | 15¢ | — | $10K | kalshi | /markets/will-khamzat-chimaev-win-the-khamzat-chimaev-vs-s-kalshi-kxufcmov-26may09chistr-chikotkodq |
| Baisangur Susurkaev by Submission | 15¢ | — | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-baisangur-susurkaev-win-the-baisangur-susurk-kalshi-kxufcmov-26may09sussan-sussub |
| Tatsuro Taira by Submission | 33¢ | — | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-tatsuro-taira-win-the-joshua-van-vs-tatsuro-kalshi-kxufcmov-26may09vantai-taisub |
| Gina Carano by Decision | 7¢ | +1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-gina-carano-win-the-ronda-rousey-vs-gina-car-kalshi-kxufcmov-26may16roucar-cardec |
| Ronda Rousey by Decision | 7¢ | +5pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-ronda-rousey-win-the-ronda-rousey-vs-gina-ca-kalshi-kxufcmov-26may16roucar-roudec |
| Grant Dawson by KO/TKO/DQ | 7¢ | — | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-grant-dawson-win-the-grant-dawson-vs-mateusz-kalshi-kxufcmov-26may09dawreb-dawkotkodq |
| Ronda Rousey by Submission | 65¢ | +6pp | $997 | kalshi | /markets/will-ronda-rousey-win-the-ronda-rousey-vs-gina-ca-kalshi-kxufcmov-26may16roucar-rousub |
| Nate Diaz by KO/TKO/DQ | 7¢ | +1pp | $790 | kalshi | /markets/will-nate-diaz-win-the-nate-diaz-vs-mike-perry-uf-kalshi-kxufcmov-26may16diaper-diakotkodq |
| Nate Diaz by Submission | 12¢ | +3pp | $461 | kalshi | /markets/will-nate-diaz-win-the-nate-diaz-vs-mike-perry-uf-kalshi-kxufcmov-26may16diaper-diasub |
| Nate Diaz by Decision | 11¢ | +10pp | $350 | kalshi | /markets/will-nate-diaz-win-the-nate-diaz-vs-mike-perry-uf-kalshi-kxufcmov-26may16diaper-diadec |
| Gina Carano by Submission | 4¢ | +1pp | $308 | kalshi | /markets/will-gina-carano-win-the-ronda-rousey-vs-gina-car-kalshi-kxufcmov-26may16roucar-carsub |
| Gina Carano by KO/TKO/DQ | 14¢ | +1pp | $263 | kalshi | /markets/will-gina-carano-win-the-ronda-rousey-vs-gina-car-kalshi-kxufcmov-26may16roucar-carkotkodq |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | 3 |
| 2026-05-03 | 19 |
| 2026-05-06 | 13 |
| 2026-05-07 | 13 |
| 2026-05-08 | 21 |

_5 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Gina Carano by KO/TKO/DQ +26pp 2→28¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Ronda Rousey by Submission +22pp 26→48¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Ronda Rousey by Submission +14pp 12→26¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Gina Carano by KO/TKO/DQ −14pp 28→14¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Ronda Rousey by Submission −12pp 48→36¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ufcmov
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ufcmov

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.