# Will the Fight end before round 3

> Fight ends before round 5 leads at 71%, runner-up 70% across 12 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ufcrounds
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:43.591Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-30

## Headline

- Leader: Fight ends before round 5 at 71%
- Runner-up: Fight ends before round 5 at 70%
- Outcomes: 12 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (12 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (12)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fight ends before round 5 | 71¢ | ±0 | $10 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-fight-end-before-round-5-fight-ends-befor-kalshi-kxufcrounds-26may16ngalin-5 |
| Fight ends before round 5 | 70¢ | ±0 | $10 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-fight-end-before-round-5-fight-ends-befor-kalshi-kxufcrounds-26may16roucar-5 |
| Fight ends before round 4 | 63¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-fight-end-before-round-4-fight-ends-befor-kalshi-kxufcrounds-26may16roucar-4 |
| Fight ends before round 3 | 60¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-fight-end-before-round-3-fight-ends-befor-kalshi-kxufcrounds-26may16fazbab-3 |
| Fight ends before round 3 | 60¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-fight-end-before-round-3-fight-ends-befor-kalshi-kxufcrounds-26may16salcro-3 |
| Fight ends before round 3 | 59¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-fight-end-before-round-3-fight-ends-befor-kalshi-kxufcrounds-26may16roucar-3 |
| Fight ends before round 2 | 47¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-fight-end-before-round-2-fight-ends-befor-kalshi-kxufcrounds-26may16roucar-2 |
| Fight ends before round 3 | 31¢ | — | $294 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-fight-end-before-round-3-fight-ends-befor-kalshi-kxufcrounds-26may09sussan-3 |
| Fight ends before round 4 | 26¢ | — | $298 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-fight-end-before-round-4-fight-ends-befor-kalshi-kxufcrounds-26may09chistr-4 |
| Fight ends before round 2 | 22¢ | — | $266 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-fight-end-before-round-2-fight-ends-befor-kalshi-kxufcrounds-26may09chistr-2 |
| Fight ends before round 3 | 4¢ | — | $31 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-fight-end-before-round-3-fight-ends-befor-kalshi-kxufcrounds-26may09chistr-3 |
| Fight ends before round 5 | 3¢ | — | $213 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-fight-end-before-round-5-fight-ends-befor-kalshi-kxufcrounds-26may09chistr-5 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Fight ends before round 5 | Fight ends before round 5 | Fight ends before round 4 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | 62 | 67 | 57 |
| 2026-05-07 | 70 | 70 | 63 |
| 2026-05-08 | 70 | 70 | 63 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Fight ends before round 3 −26pp 52→26¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Fight ends before round 3 +11pp 16→27¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Fight ends before round 2 +10pp 37→47¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Fight ends before round 3 +10pp 40→50¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Fight ends before round 3 +10pp 50→60¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability indicates traders estimate a 69% chance the fight will conclude before the end of round 5, meaning a knockout, submission, or stoppage within the first 20 minutes of competition. The current pricing reflects market expectations about fighter conditioning, striking power, and grappling advantage, balanced against the possibility of a competitive bout extending deeper. The main driver of this level appears to be historical fight data and fighter profiles—if one competitor is significantly more powerful or dominant, the probability would rise; conversely, if both fighters are known for cardio and technical exchanges, it would decline. The resolution will be determined on the fight date itself when the actual bout outcome becomes definitive and contracts settle.

### Key factors

- Historical stoppage rates for both fighters combined with their typical fight pacing and conditioning levels
- Relative striking power, knockout frequency, and grappling submission ability of each competitor
- Weight class and fight ruleset, which affect how quickly finishing opportunities typically arise
- Recent betting volume and contract repricing at different intervals (26¢, 47¢, 51¢, 60¢) suggesting disagreement about stopping point likelihood
- Schedule and time until fight date—proximity to the event typically increases forecast precision and trading volume

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ufcrounds
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ufcrounds

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.