# Movsar Evloev to be Featherweight Title holder on Dec 31, 2027

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 15% across 12 contracts — refreshed 47 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ufctitle
Updated: 2026-09-25T09:20:50.350Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 15% (liquidity-weighted across 12 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (12 contracts)
- 24h volume: $242

## Bound contracts (12)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Gaethje | 5¢ | +4pp | $148 | kalshi | /markets/justin-gaethje-to-be-lightweight-title-holder-on-d-kalshi-kxufctitle-lw27-jgae |
| Josh Hokit | 12¢ | −1pp | $34 | kalshi | /markets/josh-hokit-to-be-heavyweight-title-holder-on-dec-3-kalshi-kxufctitle-hw27-jhok |
| Islam Makhachev | 60¢ | +4pp | $34 | kalshi | /markets/islam-makhachev-to-be-welterweight-title-holder-on-kalshi-kxufctitle-ww27-imak |
| Petr Yan | 26¢ | — | $27 | kalshi | /markets/petr-yan-to-be-bantamweight-title-holder-on-dec-31-kalshi-kxufctitle-bw27-pyan |
| Merab Dvalishvili | 13¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/merab-dvalishvili-to-be-bantamweight-title-holder-kalshi-kxufctitle-bw27-mdva |
| Payton Talbott | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/payton-talbott-to-be-bantamweight-title-holder-on-kalshi-kxufctitle-bw27-ptal |
| Sean O'Malley | 11¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/sean-omalley-to-be-bantamweight-title-holder-on-de-kalshi-kxufctitle-bw27-soma |
| Song Yadong | 8¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/song-yadong-to-be-bantamweight-title-holder-on-dec-kalshi-kxufctitle-bw27-syad |
| Umar Nurmagomedov | 6¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/umar-nurmagomedov-to-be-bantamweight-title-holder-kalshi-kxufctitle-bw27-unur |
| Alexandre Pantoja | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/alexandre-pantoja-to-be-flyweight-title-holder-on-kalshi-kxufctitle-flyw27-apan |
| Brandon Royval | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/brandon-royval-to-be-flyweight-title-holder-on-dec-kalshi-kxufctitle-flyw27-broy |
| Joshua Van | 30¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/joshua-van-to-be-flyweight-title-holder-on-dec-31-kalshi-kxufctitle-flyw27-jvan |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | 30 |
| 2026-09-24 | 25 |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-18 · Islam Makhachev +47pp 3→50¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-24 · Justin Gaethje +4pp 1→5¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-24 · Islam Makhachev +4pp 53→57¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-23 · Islam Makhachev +3pp 50→53¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability indicates a 5% chance that Movsar Evloev holds the UFC Featherweight title by December 31, 2027. Evloev is currently ranked but not the champion, so this requires him to win a title shot and then defeat the incumbent or vacant-title holder within roughly 16 months. The low probability reflects that title paths in MMA typically take multiple wins, timing must align with championship schedules, and the featherweight division contains multiple capable contenders. The primary driver of this probability would be Evloev's win-loss record over the next year and his positioning in official UFC rankings, which determine title-shot eligibility. The biggest catalyst for resolution will be any title fights scheduled in the featherweight division through late 2027, as these events determine whether the title becomes available and who holds it at year-end.

### Key factors

- Evloev's current ranking status and number of ranked wins required to reach a title shot in the featherweight division
- The number and caliber of other featherweight contenders competing for title opportunities within the 16-month timeframe
- Scheduled UFC Featherweight title bouts and the current champion's health status and fight frequency
- Evloev's recent performance trajectory and injury history over the past 12 months
- Whether the featherweight title remains active or undergoes championship transitions that affect title-holder status by December 31, 2027

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ufctitle
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ufctitle

## License

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