# Will Alexander Hernandez win the Rafa Garcia vs. Alexander Hernandez UFC fight in Round 2

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 41% across 13 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ufcvicround
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:44.182Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-30

## Headline

- Probability: 41% (liquidity-weighted across 13 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (13 contracts)
- 24h volume: $7K

## Bound contracts (13)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Decision / Draw / No Contest | 51¢ | — | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-either-competitor-win-the-jim-miller-vs-jared-kalshi-kxufcvicround-26may09milgor-other |
| Decision / Draw / No Contest | 39¢ | — | $662 | kalshi | /markets/will-either-competitor-win-the-joel-alvarez-vs-yar-kalshi-kxufcvicround-26may09alvamo-other |
| Khamzat Chimaev to win in Round 1 | 27¢ | — | $611 | kalshi | /markets/will-khamzat-chimaev-win-the-khamzat-chimaev-vs-se-kalshi-kxufcvicround-26may09chistr-chi1 |
| Decision / Draw / No Contest | 40¢ | — | $610 | kalshi | /markets/will-either-competitor-win-the-sean-brady-vs-joaqu-kalshi-kxufcvicround-26may09brabuc-other |
| Decision / Draw / No Contest | 33¢ | — | $546 | kalshi | /markets/will-either-competitor-win-the-baisangur-susurkaev-kalshi-kxufcvicround-26may09sussan-other |
| Decision / Draw / No Contest | 41¢ | — | $536 | kalshi | /markets/will-either-competitor-win-the-roman-kopylov-vs-ma-kalshi-kxufcvicround-26may09koptul-other |
| Decision / Draw / No Contest | 31¢ | — | $480 | kalshi | /markets/will-either-competitor-win-the-joshua-van-vs-tatsu-kalshi-kxufcvicround-26may09vantai-other |
| Khamzat Chimaev to win in Round 2 | 18¢ | — | $476 | kalshi | /markets/will-khamzat-chimaev-win-the-khamzat-chimaev-vs-se-kalshi-kxufcvicround-26may09chistr-chi2 |
| Decision / Draw / No Contest | 45¢ | — | $466 | kalshi | /markets/will-either-competitor-win-the-grant-dawson-vs-mat-kalshi-kxufcvicround-26may09dawreb-other |
| Decision / Draw / No Contest | 56¢ | — | $463 | kalshi | /markets/will-either-competitor-win-the-alexander-volkov-vs-kalshi-kxufcvicround-26may09volcor-other |
| Decision / Draw / No Contest | 45¢ | — | $463 | kalshi | /markets/will-either-competitor-win-the-king-green-vs-jerem-kalshi-kxufcvicround-26may09greste-other |
| Decision / Draw / No Contest | 53¢ | — | $463 | kalshi | /markets/will-either-competitor-win-the-pat-sabatini-vs-wil-kalshi-kxufcvicround-26may09sabgom-other |
| Decision / Draw / No Contest | 50¢ | — | $463 | kalshi | /markets/will-either-competitor-win-the-clayton-carpenter-v-kalshi-kxufcvicround-26may09caroch-other |

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ufcvicround
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ufcvicround

## License

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