# Who will be the Welterweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026

> Islam Makhachev leads at 65%, runner-up 28% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ufcwelterweighttitle
Updated: 2026-06-26T14:20:49.177Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: Islam Makhachev at 65%
- Runner-up: Ian Machado Garry at 28%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $360

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | 65¢ | −1pp | $68 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-the-welterweight-title-holder-on-dec-3-kalshi-kxufcwelterweighttitle-26-imak |
| Ian Machado Garry | 28¢ | −1pp | $255 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-the-welterweight-title-holder-on-dec-3-kalshi-kxufcwelterweighttitle-26-igar |
| Carlos Prates | 5¢ | ±0 | $37 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-the-welterweight-title-holder-on-dec-3-kalshi-kxufcwelterweighttitle-26-cpra |
| Kamaru Usman | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-the-welterweight-title-holder-on-dec-3-kalshi-kxufcwelterweighttitle-26-kusm |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Islam Makhachev | Ian Machado Garry | Carlos Prates |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 52 | 10 | — |
| 2026-05-30 | 53 | 10 | 8 |
| 2026-06-12 | 57 | 8 | — |
| 2026-06-14 | 57 | 9 | 12 |
| 2026-06-19 | 70 | 22 | 3 |
| 2026-06-25 | 65 | — | 3 |
| 2026-06-26 | — | 28 | 3 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-20 · Ian Machado Garry +8pp 22→30¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · Ian Machado Garry +8pp 24→32¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · Ian Machado Garry −6pp 30→24¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-20 · Islam Makhachev −6pp 70→64¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Ian Machado Garry −4pp 33→29¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market reflects a 59% probability that Imanuel Alkhalifa will hold the UFC welterweight title on December 31, 2026. The current leader's elevated odds suggest confidence in either his path to the title or retention if he holds it presently, though the runner-up sits at only 8%, indicating no clear consensus on alternatives. The main drivers are Alkhalifa's competitive ranking, scheduled title fight timing, and potential injuries or upsets among other contenders. Title fights typically occur 2–3 months after announcement, making any official UFC matchmaking announcement critical to resolving this outcome. The Dec 31 deadline means only fights scheduled before late October 2026 would likely affect the final title holder.

### Key factors

- Alkhalifa's current official UFC ranking and proximity to a title shot as of mid-2026
- Announcement or scheduling of a specific welterweight title bout involving Alkhalifa or the current champion
- Historical UFC welterweight title fight frequency and average time-to-bout from announcement to execution
- Injury reports or withdrawal announcements by Alkhalifa or the sitting champion in the second half of 2026
- Relative betting volume and odds movement across the three contracts, indicating whether conviction is concentrated or dispersed

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ufcwelterweighttitle
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ufcwelterweighttitle

## License

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