# Will Birmingham Stallions be the UFL champion

> Closed. Last odds frozen 15 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/uflchamp
Updated: 2026-06-13T13:20:50.695Z
Category: sports
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-06-28

## Headline

- Probability: 18% (liquidity-weighted across 5 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $418

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DC Defenders | 28¢ | −1pp | $394 | kalshi | /markets/will-dc-defenders-be-the-ufl-champion-dc-defenders-kalshi-kxuflchamp-26-dc |
| Louisville Kings | 51¢ | ±0 | $24 | kalshi | /markets/will-louisville-kings-be-the-ufl-champion-louisvil-kalshi-kxuflchamp-26-lou |
| Columbus Aviators | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-columbus-aviators-be-the-ufl-champion-columbu-kalshi-kxuflchamp-26-clb |
| Dallas Renegades | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-dallas-renegades-be-the-ufl-champion-dallas-r-kalshi-kxuflchamp-26-dal |
| Houston Gamblers | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-houston-gamblers-be-the-ufl-champion-houston-kalshi-kxuflchamp-26-hou |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | 21 |
| 2026-06-12 | 40 |

_14 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

The 27% probability reflects market expectations that Birmingham will win the UFL championship this season. This estimate is shaped by the team's performance relative to other UFL franchises and their remaining schedule strength. The primary catalyst for this probability would be playoff performance, as the UFL typically concludes its championship in late spring or early summer. Teams with stronger win-loss records and head-to-head results against competitors would see their probabilities shift accordingly as the postseason approaches. Market participants are pricing in current roster quality, coaching decisions, and injury status to form this assessment.

### Key factors

- Birmingham's current win-loss record and conference standing compared to other UFL teams
- Team roster depth and key player health status entering the playoff period
- Recent performance trends and point differential in games against playoff contenders
- Strength of schedule for remaining regular season games relative to competition
- Historical UFL championship win rates for teams at similar regular-season performance levels

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/uflchamp
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=uflchamp

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.