# Orlando Storm wins by over 4.5 points

> Orlando Storm wins by over 4.5 points leads at 3%, runner-up 3% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/uflspread
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:26.342Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-17

## Headline

- Leader: Orlando Storm wins by over 4.5 points at 3%
- Runner-up: Orlando Storm wins by over 3.5 points at 3%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orlando Storm wins by over 4.5 points | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/orlando-storm-wins-by-over-45-points-orlando-storm-kalshi-kxuflspread-26may10orlhou-orl5 |
| Orlando Storm wins by over 3.5 points | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/orlando-storm-wins-by-over-35-points-orlando-storm-kalshi-kxuflspread-26may10orlhou-orl4 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Orlando Storm wins by over 4.5 points | Orlando Storm wins by over 3.5 points |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | 3 | 3 |
| 2026-05-07 | 3 | 3 |
| 2026-05-08 | 3 | 3 |
| 2026-05-09 | 3 | 3 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This market asks whether the Orlando Storm will defeat their opponent by more than 4.5 points in an upcoming matchup. The current 8% probability suggests the market views this outcome as unlikely. The probability reflects Orlando's recent performance metrics and how they match up against their opponent, combined with factors like home-field advantage and current roster health. The main driver pushing this probability down appears to be relative team strength—the contracting volume concentrated on St. Louis Battlehawks suggests market participants expect a different outcome. Uncertainty will resolve when the game concludes and the final margin of victory is determined. The specific date of the matchup and both teams' recent form heading into that contest will be the primary catalysts affecting where this probability settles in the interim.

### Key factors

- Orlando Storm's offensive and defensive efficiency rankings relative to their opponent in recent games
- Whether the game is played at Orlando's home stadium or away, as home-field advantage typically shifts win probability by 2-3 points
- Head-to-head historical performance between these specific teams, including any relevant matchup-specific advantages
- Injury or roster status updates for key players on either team in the days before the scheduled game
- Current betting line and point spread from major sportsbooks, which typically incorporates similar information available to professional oddsmakers

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/uflspread
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=uflspread

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.