# Will UK inflation rate YoY for March 2026 be above 3.6%

> Above 2.4% leads at 89%, runner-up 86% across 14 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 22 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ukcpiyoy
Updated: 2026-06-08T04:20:12.519Z
Category: economy · Topic: recession
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-17

## Headline

- Leader: Above 2.4% at 89%
- Runner-up: Above 2.5% at 86%
- Outcomes: 14 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (14 contracts)
- 24h volume: $13

## Bound contracts (14)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 2.4% | 89¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-uk-inflation-rate-yoy-for-may-2026-be-above-2-kalshi-kxukcpiyoy-26jun17-t2.4 |
| Above 2.5% | 86¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-uk-inflation-rate-yoy-for-may-2026-be-above-2-kalshi-kxukcpiyoy-26jun17-t2.5 |
| Above 2.6% | 84¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-uk-inflation-rate-yoy-for-may-2026-be-above-2-kalshi-kxukcpiyoy-26jun17-t2.6 |
| Above 2.7% | 82¢ | −9pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-uk-inflation-rate-yoy-for-may-2026-be-above-2-kalshi-kxukcpiyoy-26jun17-t2.7 |
| Above 2.8% | 74¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-uk-inflation-rate-yoy-for-may-2026-be-above-2-kalshi-kxukcpiyoy-26jun17-t2.8 |
| Above 2.9% | 67¢ | +9pp | $13 | kalshi | /markets/will-uk-inflation-rate-yoy-for-may-2026-be-above-2-kalshi-kxukcpiyoy-26jun17-t2.9 |
| Above 3.0% | 47¢ | −9pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-uk-inflation-rate-yoy-for-may-2026-be-above-3-kalshi-kxukcpiyoy-26jun17-t3.0 |
| Above 3.1% | 34¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-uk-inflation-rate-yoy-for-may-2026-be-above-3-kalshi-kxukcpiyoy-26jun17-t3.1 |
| Above 3.2% | 20¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-uk-inflation-rate-yoy-for-may-2026-be-above-3-kalshi-kxukcpiyoy-26jun17-t3.2 |
| Above 3.7% | 7¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-uk-inflation-rate-yoy-for-may-2026-be-above-3-kalshi-kxukcpiyoy-26jun17-t3.7 |
| Above 3.3% | 6¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-uk-inflation-rate-yoy-for-may-2026-be-above-3-kalshi-kxukcpiyoy-26jun17-t3.3 |
| Above 3.6% | 4¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-uk-inflation-rate-yoy-for-may-2026-be-above-3-kalshi-kxukcpiyoy-26jun17-t3.6 |
| Above 3.4% | 3¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-uk-inflation-rate-yoy-for-may-2026-be-above-3-kalshi-kxukcpiyoy-26jun17-t3.4 |
| Above 3.8% | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-uk-inflation-rate-yoy-for-may-2026-be-above-3-kalshi-kxukcpiyoy-26jun17-t3.8 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 2.4% | Above 2.5% | Above 2.6% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | 95 | 95 | 94 |
| 2026-05-21 | 96 | 96 | 95 |
| 2026-05-22 | 97 | — | — |
| 2026-05-24 | — | — | 88 |
| 2026-05-25 | 93 | 90 | — |
| 2026-05-26 | 89 | 86 | 84 |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-04 · Above 3.0% −9pp 56→47¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-02 · Above 3.2% −4pp 25→21¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ukcpiyoy
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ukcpiyoy
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/recession

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.