# Will UK GDP MoM for March 2026 be above -0.1%

> Above -0.5% leads at 86%, runner-up 83% across 10 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ukgdpmom
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:38.493Z
Category: economy · Topic: recession
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-14

## Headline

- Leader: Above -0.5% at 86%
- Runner-up: Above -0.4% at 83%
- Outcomes: 10 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (10 contracts)
- 24h volume: $600

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above -0.5% | 86¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-uk-gdp-mom-for-march-2026-be-above-05-above-0-kalshi-kxukgdpmom-26may14-t-0.5 |
| Above -0.4% | 83¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-uk-gdp-mom-for-march-2026-be-above-04-above-0-kalshi-kxukgdpmom-26may14-t-0.4 |
| Above -0.3% | 81¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-uk-gdp-mom-for-march-2026-be-above-03-above-0-kalshi-kxukgdpmom-26may14-t-0.3 |
| Above -0.2% | 65¢ | −1pp | $200 | kalshi | /markets/will-uk-gdp-mom-for-march-2026-be-above-02-above-0-kalshi-kxukgdpmom-26may14-t-0.2 |
| Above -0.1% | 53¢ | −2pp | $400 | kalshi | /markets/will-uk-gdp-mom-for-march-2026-be-above-01-above-0-kalshi-kxukgdpmom-26may14-t-0.1 |
| Above 0.0% | 40¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-uk-gdp-mom-for-march-2026-be-above-00-above-0-kalshi-kxukgdpmom-26may14-t0.0 |
| Above 0.1% | 29¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-uk-gdp-mom-for-march-2026-be-above-01-above-0-kalshi-kxukgdpmom-26may14-t0.1 |
| Above 0.2% | 19¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-uk-gdp-mom-for-march-2026-be-above-02-above-0-kalshi-kxukgdpmom-26may14-t0.2 |
| Above 0.3% | 8¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-uk-gdp-mom-for-march-2026-be-above-03-above-0-kalshi-kxukgdpmom-26may14-t0.3 |
| Above 0.4% | 3¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-uk-gdp-mom-for-march-2026-be-above-04-above-0-kalshi-kxukgdpmom-26may14-t0.4 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above -0.5% | Above -0.4% | Above -0.3% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | — | 91 | 89 |
| 2026-05-01 | 91 | 89 | 88 |
| 2026-05-02 | 90 | 88 | 86 |
| 2026-05-06 | 88 | — | — |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Above 0.2% −3pp 26→23¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract asks whether UK GDP expanded month-over-month in March 2026, or contracted by 0.1% or less. The 90% probability reflects strong confidence that a significant contraction did not occur. UK economic momentum, recent employment data, and consumer spending patterns heading into Q1 2026 appear to be driving this high reading; weakness in these indicators would lower the probability. The resolution depends on the Office for National Statistics' official GDP release, typically published 30 days after month-end. March 2026 data would ordinarily be released in late April, meaning this contract was likely already settled or is imminently resolvable. Traders are pricing in a modest positive or flat performance rather than a pronounced decline.

### Key factors

- UK labor market strength and unemployment levels in early 2026 influence consumer confidence and spending capacity
- Monthly services and manufacturing PMI readings for March 2026 signal real-time economic activity and business confidence
- Retail sales data for March 2026 provides advance signals of consumer demand before GDP release
- Brexit-related supply chain disruptions or trade friction could suppress month-on-month activity
- Sterling exchange rates and import/export pricing dynamics affect measured GDP growth in nominal terms

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ukgdpmom
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ukgdpmom
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/recession

## License

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