# Will there be a Ukraine ceasefire?

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 6% across 1 contract — refreshed 51 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ukraine-ceasefire
Updated: 2026-06-08T05:20:10.207Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: ukraine
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-19

## Headline

- Probability: 6% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maintain current rate | 6¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-bank-of-russia-maintain-current-rate-at-t-kalshi-kxcbdecisionrussia-26jun19-hold |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 21 |
| 2026-05-24 | 10 |
| 2026-06-01 | 8 |
| 2026-06-06 | 6 |

_18 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ukraine-ceasefire
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ukraine-ceasefire
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ukraine

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.