# Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by...

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 12% across 1 contract — refreshed 13 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ukraine-reenter-maliivka
Updated: 2026-05-03T19:06:00.516Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: ukraine
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-31

## Headline

- Probability: 12% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 12¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-ukraine-re-enter-maliivka-by-may-31-polymarket-0x8f999c0b54dce9264ca0c60fd62b48eb53ea343df74c87f4801a2979a31f8c07 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | 31 |
| 2026-04-26 | 24 |
| 2026-05-02 | 11 |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-26 · May 31 −7pp 31→24¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · May 31 −7pp 24→17¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-29 · May 31 −4pp 17→13¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This contract predicts whether Ukrainian forces will recapture Maliivka, a settlement in Donetsk region, by a specified deadline. The 11% probability reflects skepticism about Ukrainian military capability to regain this territory within the timeframe, given current frontline dynamics and resource constraints. The probability would rise if Ukrainian forces demonstrate significant territorial gains elsewhere or receive substantial military reinforcements, and would fall if Russian positions strengthen further. The key catalyst is the pace of active combat operations in Donetsk—major shifts in territorial control or announced military offensives would move this market meaningfully. Resolution hinges on independent verification of Ukrainian control over Maliivka at the contract deadline.

### Key factors

- Current distance of frontline from Maliivka and recent rate of Ukrainian territorial advance or retreat in the area
- Availability of Ukrainian reserve forces and Western military aid flows committed to offensive operations in Donetsk
- Status of Russian defensive fortifications and troop concentrations around Maliivka
- Historical precedent: timeline and conditions of previous Ukrainian recaptures in similar operational contexts
- Seasonal factors and weather patterns affecting combat operations between now and the contract deadline

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ukraine-reenter-maliivka
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ukraine-reenter-maliivka
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ukraine

## License

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