# Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by...

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 11% across 1 contract — refreshed 14 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ukraine-reenter-obratne-or-temyrivka
Updated: 2026-05-03T19:05:55.008Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: ukraine
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-31

## Headline

- Probability: 11% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $142

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 11¢ | +1pp | $142 | polymarket | /markets/will-ukraine-re-enter-obratne-or-temyrivka-by-may-polymarket-0x50544b83110aca59acedbd292a395140b90caddff597c96ce0f1b5614df6e6bf |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | 36 |
| 2026-04-26 | 24 |
| 2026-05-03 | 5 |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-01 · May 31 −16pp 23→7¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-29 · May 31 −11pp 34→23¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-27 · May 31 +6pp 24→30¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · May 31 +4pp 30→34¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-26 · May 31 −3pp 27→24¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market asks whether Ukrainian forces will retake the towns of Obratne or Temyrivka by a specified date. The 4% probability reflects skepticism about near-term Ukrainian territorial gains in this sector. The assessment depends primarily on two factors: the current military balance of forces in the region and the rate at which Ukrainian counteroffensives can penetrate Russian-held territory. The key catalyst will be observable changes in front-line positions over the coming months, particularly whether Ukrainian forces can achieve sustained advances in this area or whether the front remains static. Resolution hinges on verified territorial control rather than claims, making satellite imagery and independent reporting crucial to the outcome.

### Key factors

- Current distance of Ukrainian forces from Obratne and Temyrivka relative to documented front lines as of May 2026
- Rate of Ukrainian territorial gains in adjacent sectors over the previous 6-12 months
- Russian defensive capabilities and reinforcement levels in this specific region
- Availability of Ukrainian reserves and equipment for offensive operations
- Timeframe specified in the contract—earlier deadlines face steeper odds than later ones

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ukraine-reenter-obratne-or-temyrivka
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ukraine-reenter-obratne-or-temyrivka
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ukraine

## License

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