# Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by...

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 20% across 20 contracts — refreshed 13 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ukraine-reenter-rodynske
Updated: 2026-05-03T16:35:56.280Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: ukraine
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 20% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $235K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 11¢ | −2pp | $46K | polymarket | /markets/will-reza-pahlavi-enter-iran-by-december-31-polymarket-0x2f224fca80a6a6b3a2a200406473fc8b33da6bcf5af83dc3fe9021a541c0519d |
| June 30 | 3¢ | −1pp | $43K | polymarket | /markets/will-reza-pahlavi-enter-iran-by-june-30-polymarket-0x43272c02b8407ed3f8d5b04fb4cb132d7a59c5df6ecc423afcf66f1c778d1887 |
| September 30 | 11¢ | +1pp | $37K | polymarket | /markets/will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens-exist-by-september-polymarket-0xace3c72c24fccb6731433483ece41c780432d84850edccd5a6bf3147ccea62a9 |
| December 31 | 18¢ | −1pp | $37K | polymarket | /markets/will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens-exist-by-december-polymarket-0x747dc809fb79e1b05be09c42d6179459a58de2ef3e40f02484a4e1260f741f75 |
| June 30, 2026 | 11¢ | ±0 | $12K | polymarket | /markets/will-hamas-agree-to-disarm-by-june-30-2026-polymarket-0x2cd4df599867b14e835436e67e524cd04bbd67eaa6454c07b294d9dd0470e6b7 |
| June 30 | 5¢ | +1pp | $11K | polymarket | /markets/will-russia-capture-all-of-kostyantynivka-by-june-polymarket-0x445895d68e167bf457e645ceab3b3e45661ea5d90d5453ede6d107e651377e4b |
| June 30 | 5¢ | −2pp | $11K | polymarket | /markets/will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens-exist-by-june-30-polymarket-0xa7962b12241616d83dcb8c70fc33aa0f48b1ec46a3ad6a23db21d3885dedc4cb |
| December 31, 2026 | 78¢ | ±0 | $8K | polymarket | /markets/will-russia-capture-kostyantynivka-by-december-31-polymarket-0x7e50b661a2bedc670bcf32fc9ece12616f6fc4fba5dbe8526292bf3447374009 |
| June 30, 2026 | 30¢ | −1pp | $7K | polymarket | /markets/will-russia-capture-kostyantynivka-by-june-30-2026-polymarket-0xb23587fc1e319cdf9aaa12c503f6b2149c820c3d64ded3c98b4ff6719cac78fe |
| Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire | 56¢ | −1pp | $6K | polymarket | /markets/what-will-happen-before-gta-vi-russia-ukraine-ceas-polymarket-0x9c1a953fe92c8357f1b646ba25d983aa83e90c525992db14fb726fa895cb5763 |
| July 31 | 22¢ | −1pp | $4K | polymarket | /markets/will-russia-enter-orikhiv-by-july-31-polymarket-0xe271ffb9e706a4e589437ffda8dd59b5ed53d98a31e5203698aa62c83b999e0a |
| December 31 | 10¢ | −12pp | $4K | polymarket | /markets/will-us-withdraw-from-nato-by-december-31-polymarket-0x09bd898af149ff142f72abd30709dadf4fedafcce3b00ef37fd62a733063d7c9 |
| May 31, 2026 | 11¢ | ±0 | $3K | polymarket | /markets/will-russia-capture-kostyantynivka-by-may-31-2026-polymarket-0xc13c31b0e5d48e978cc5c66318659ecab10e9882543e87a5f4eea5a5f889bdc2 |
| December 31 | 8¢ | ±0 | $2K | polymarket | /markets/will-the-us-officially-declare-war-on-iran-by-dece-polymarket-0x3285179b99df57b0390e480f8e69d340e5fa38496b263225df90ef389e2958f4 |
| May 31 | 21¢ | −3pp | $2K | polymarket | /markets/will-russia-enter-novyi-donbas-by-may-31-polymarket-0x5298a3e5e94c53db578af5b5e66b48e41f0b5accb2781776cfa218c43301fd39 |
| May 31 | 76¢ | −6pp | $842 | polymarket | /markets/will-russia-enter-novooleksandrivka-by-may-31-polymarket-0x6fd1df75a50347e4ec77ce31419d4a672a11485ceeef337cc0fbef6bb1edaf1c |
| May 31 | 9¢ | +1pp | $142 | polymarket | /markets/will-ukraine-re-enter-obratne-or-temyrivka-by-may-polymarket-0x50544b83110aca59acedbd292a395140b90caddff597c96ce0f1b5614df6e6bf |
| May 31 | 12¢ | −1pp | $35 | polymarket | /markets/will-ukraine-re-enter-maliivka-by-may-31-polymarket-0x8f999c0b54dce9264ca0c60fd62b48eb53ea343df74c87f4801a2979a31f8c07 |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by May 31? | 6¢ | ±0 | $33 | polymarket | /markets/will-ukraine-re-enter-myrnohrad-by-may-31-polymarket-0x5092e89f561ed9317a8ed1dabf7421bd4d729477767aed9efac9fff1ac2a8eb9 |
| May 31 | 6¢ | −15pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-ukraine-re-enter-uspenivka-by-may-31-polymarket-0x03c903334fa2d1cffd5cc844cf081f401aeb0fcc976cbb14374a97be2cd18888 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 27 |
| 2026-04-19 | 30 |
| 2026-04-26 | 34 |
| 2026-05-03 | 26 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-28 · June 30 +22pp 6→28¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-29 · June 30 −20pp 28→8¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · December 31 −17pp 30→13¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · December 31 +16pp 14→30¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-01 · May 31 −16pp 46→30¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ukraine-reenter-rodynske
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ukraine-reenter-rodynske
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ukraine

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.