# Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by...

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 6% across 1 contract — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ukraine-reenter-uspenivka
Updated: 2026-05-03T19:50:59.519Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: ukraine
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-31

## Headline

- Probability: 6% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 6¢ | −15pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-ukraine-re-enter-uspenivka-by-may-31-polymarket-0x03c903334fa2d1cffd5cc844cf081f401aeb0fcc976cbb14374a97be2cd18888 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-21 | 48 |
| 2026-04-26 | 12 |
| 2026-04-29 | 7 |

_9 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-29 · May 31 −15pp 22→7¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · May 31 +11pp 11→22¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market estimates a 6% chance that Ukrainian forces will retake Uspenivka by a specified deadline. The low probability reflects the significant territorial challenges Ukraine faces in recapturing held positions, given current military capacities and Russian defensive positions. The estimate could shift substantially based on major changes in military aid provision, troop availability, or tactical developments on the eastern front. Key drivers include the pace of Ukrainian counteroffensive operations, NATO military support levels, and Russian reinforcement and defensive capabilities in the sector. The primary uncertainty catalyst would be either a major breakthrough in Ukrainian offensive operations or a significant change in military support that alters operational feasibility within the timeframe.

### Key factors

- Current Ukrainian control status of Uspenivka and distance from front lines as of market creation
- Volume and type of military aid commitments to Ukraine over the relevant timeframe
- Russian defensive positions, troop concentrations, and fortification status in the sector
- Ukrainian casualty rates, equipment losses, and force mobilization capacity relative to offensive requirements
- Seasonal conditions and historical offensive timelines for comparable operations in this theater

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ukraine-reenter-uspenivka
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ukraine-reenter-uspenivka
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ukraine

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.