# Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 28% across 1 contract — refreshed 7 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:50:41.745Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: ukraine
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 28% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $23K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | 28¢ | −1pp | $23K | polymarket | /markets/ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-before-2027-polymarket-0x4167e22670f31e5f93d132f78108f3fae809bd15cadf78983eff096845ed1415 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 28 |
| 2026-04-25 | 28 |
| 2026-04-29 | 27 |
| 2026-05-09 | 29 |

_20 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-08 · Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? +5pp 25→30¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Ukraine and Russia will reach a formal peace agreement by the end of 2026. The 27% level suggests markets view a deal as possible but unlikely within the next seven months, with significant uncertainty about negotiating willingness, territorial concessions, and NATO involvement. The current assessment balances ongoing military stalemate against diplomatic obstacles and the challenge of reconciling conflicting war objectives. Key factors include Russia's military capacity to sustain operations, Ukraine's willingness to negotiate territorial terms, US and European support continuity, and whether either party believes conditions will improve through further conflict. The most consequential near-term signal would come from any announced peace talks or shift in either nation's stated preconditions for negotiation.

### Key factors

- Current Russian military capabilities and rate of territorial gains, which would shift incentives toward or away from negotiation
- Explicit statements by Ukrainian and Russian leadership regarding willingness to enter peace talks and acceptable settlement terms
- Continuation or change in Western military aid flows to Ukraine, which directly affects negotiating leverage
- NATO expansion or security guarantee proposals for Ukraine, which Russia identifies as a core negotiating sticking point
- Evidence of war fatigue, economic strain, or domestic political pressure in either Russia or Ukraine that would motivate settlement

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ukraine

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