# Will UK unemployment rate for March 2026 be above 4.6%

> Above 4.6% leads at 89%, runner-up 73% across 10 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ukunrate
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:38.445Z
Category: economy · Topic: recession
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-13

## Headline

- Leader: Above 4.6% at 89%
- Runner-up: Above 4.7% at 73%
- Outcomes: 10 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (10 contracts)
- 24h volume: $203

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 4.6% | 89¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-uk-unemployment-rate-for-march-2026-be-above-kalshi-kxukunrate-26may13-t4.6 |
| Above 4.7% | 73¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-uk-unemployment-rate-for-march-2026-be-above-kalshi-kxukunrate-26may13-t4.7 |
| Above 4.8% | 56¢ | −2pp | $3 | kalshi | /markets/will-uk-unemployment-rate-for-march-2026-be-above-kalshi-kxukunrate-26may13-t4.8 |
| Above 4.9% | 42¢ | −2pp | $200 | kalshi | /markets/will-uk-unemployment-rate-for-march-2026-be-above-kalshi-kxukunrate-26may13-t4.9 |
| Above 5.0% | 26¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-uk-unemployment-rate-for-march-2026-be-above-kalshi-kxukunrate-26may13-t5.0 |
| Above 5.1% | 13¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-uk-unemployment-rate-for-march-2026-be-above-kalshi-kxukunrate-26may13-t5.1 |
| Above 5.2% | 9¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-uk-unemployment-rate-for-march-2026-be-above-kalshi-kxukunrate-26may13-t5.2 |
| Above 5.3% | 7¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-uk-unemployment-rate-for-march-2026-be-above-kalshi-kxukunrate-26may13-t5.3 |
| Above 5.5% | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-uk-unemployment-rate-for-march-2026-be-above-kalshi-kxukunrate-26may13-t5.5 |
| Above 5.6% | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-uk-unemployment-rate-for-march-2026-be-above-kalshi-kxukunrate-26may13-t5.6 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 4.6% | Above 4.7% | Above 4.8% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-21 | 90 | 75 | 60 |
| 2026-04-24 | 89 | 73 | 55 |
| 2026-04-29 | — | — | 55 |
| 2026-05-08 | — | 71 | 53 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

The market currently prices an 89% probability that UK unemployment will exceed 4.6% when March 2026 data is released. This high probability reflects expectations that joblessness remains elevated relative to recent lows, driven by cooling economic activity and potential labor market softness. The primary factors supporting this level are recent UK economic slowdown indicators and labor market trends through early 2026. The Office for National Statistics will publish the official March 2026 unemployment figure, which will definitively resolve this contract. Traders are essentially betting that unemployment stays above the 4.6% threshold rather than declining further, with relatively little disagreement evident in the contract pricing structure.

### Key factors

- UK unemployment rate averaged 4.0-4.2% in late 2024, meaning 4.6% represents meaningful deterioration from recent levels
- ONS labor force surveys and monthly jobless claims data through February-March 2026 will form the basis of the official figure
- Economic growth forecasts for Q1 2026 and leading employment indicators (job postings, hiring intentions) through March will influence actual outcomes
- The specific contract resolves on the ONS release date for March 2026 labor statistics, eliminating gradual uncertainty once official data arrives
- Contrast with Spanish GDP contracts trading at 88-96% suggests different regional labor market dynamics; UK unemployment moves somewhat independently from eurozone growth patterns

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ukunrate
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ukunrate
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/recession

## License

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