# Ulsan HD FC vs. Pohang Steelers FC

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 32% across 20 contracts — refreshed 5 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ulsan-hd-fc-vs-pohang-steelers-fc
Updated: 2026-05-03T13:20:09.179Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 32% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 29% / Polymarket 32% — 3pp spread
- 24h volume: $183

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ulsan HD FC | 36¢ | +2pp | $86 | polymarket | /markets/gimcheon-sangmu-fc-vs-ulsan-hd-fc-ulsan-hd-fc-polymarket-0x7f5e73a1e1d8ef935c37b02bfa22007d8fdbfefe92f85d66f2fffcb07a73c050 |
| Pohang Steelers FC (-2.5) | 4¢ | −7pp | $28 | polymarket | /markets/gangwon-fc-vs-pohang-steelers-fc-more-markets-poha-polymarket-0xbebd40e0775489e30acba700dc801ea287d98a2cdd798bcbd74090cc0dce6491 |
| O/U 1.5 | 73¢ | ±0 | $25 | polymarket | /markets/gimcheon-sangmu-fc-vs-ulsan-hd-fc-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0x958037183bbbe9c19389945a89a0123d13bd75f0cbc4bf48a9c88a4f8669d5e6 |
| O/U 2.5 | 47¢ | −2pp | $25 | polymarket | /markets/gimcheon-sangmu-fc-vs-ulsan-hd-fc-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0xc2ca5022ecefa00d5fdb377dcf1eba34cb1973d86b75b22e40122dd29ca651b6 |
| Draw (Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Ulsan HD FC) | 28¢ | −1pp | $9 | polymarket | /markets/gimcheon-sangmu-fc-vs-ulsan-hd-fc-draw-gimcheon-sa-polymarket-0xce05614d03ca739ac993c8183c252089449df98b1a94e557415259d5e12facdf |
| O/U 4.5 | 13¢ | −1pp | $8 | polymarket | /markets/gimcheon-sangmu-fc-vs-ulsan-hd-fc-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0x6bf7a43e176741b749890f4c3a5d781f0da3fb7ef5bc2476a1494d53c83df057 |
| O/U 1.5 | 65¢ | +1pp | $2 | polymarket | /markets/gangwon-fc-vs-pohang-steelers-fc-more-markets-ou-1-polymarket-0x4a0472cb7ccdcd5366403565331f4a95348950540345b4d9bc38cb051f3f2ce2 |
| Draw (Gangwon FC vs. Pohang Steelers FC) | 31¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/gangwon-fc-vs-pohang-steelers-fc-draw-gangwon-fc-v-polymarket-0x723f6513bff795c8e26c77d1a02dc05383b9ee65b6468ab1692b1fe11dc56749 |
| Gangwon FC (-1.5) | 19¢ | −6pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/gangwon-fc-vs-pohang-steelers-fc-more-markets-gang-polymarket-0x9773477051a3c61942e8e0a25db15ec0cc259cc84a8129b808f5da2ee5454855 |
| O/U 2.5 | 39¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/gangwon-fc-vs-pohang-steelers-fc-more-markets-ou-2-polymarket-0x39eae113869c1417d45063c370cc1a1de6cf6959b55b185ab24de3da4206cc7b |
| Pohang Steelers FC (-1.5) | 8¢ | −4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/gangwon-fc-vs-pohang-steelers-fc-more-markets-poha-polymarket-0xe483f075697000ad1401fe2478d87793c1c64ba6bd865b6684fa7090bfbc01b4 |
| O/U 3.5 | 18¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/gangwon-fc-vs-pohang-steelers-fc-more-markets-ou-3-polymarket-0x9e7de8736cfe8c0a7d4852c1766964d88ea13f5a0ac20f6e937b1a331b02ac10 |
| Both Teams to Score | 46¢ | −4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/gangwon-fc-vs-pohang-steelers-fc-more-markets-both-polymarket-0xdb7be8346be40aa763c55f68f85fd3167b7990b5d332f721c69c933b2038c886 |
| Pohang Steelers FC | 25¢ | −6pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/gangwon-fc-vs-pohang-steelers-fc-pohang-steelers-f-polymarket-0xa80cd7cea8e72ee13a95418eabf7e7dc15764334801b08c5f1503d988061c5ea |
| Gangwon FC | 45¢ | +4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/gangwon-fc-vs-pohang-steelers-fc-gangwon-fc-polymarket-0x09ab68384d4d225b73ee81dc3d999bed2d77b5f4c330ca15faf3d522e1e20c78 |
| Gangwon FC (-2.5) | 7¢ | −10pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/gangwon-fc-vs-pohang-steelers-fc-more-markets-gang-polymarket-0x36d69b46f9ba0a6cfc5168b305eca85afa449e888dea2c0d48395ad3a81b31ff |
| O/U 4.5 | 7¢ | −10pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/gangwon-fc-vs-pohang-steelers-fc-more-markets-ou-4-polymarket-0x22a7b873ff4263dd494ac04691c575e34e6ead679615d49097bdbeec5509f1ac |
| Winner: Pohang Steelers | 49¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/k-league-winner-pohang-steelers-polymarket-0x5640ae979c8ee8bed266db3f90048abbab20e9215d1983c3ec83dbb4851451f5 |
| Tie | 29¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/gangwon-vs-pohang-steelers-winner-tie-kalshi-kxkleaguegame-26may05gawpoh-tie |
| Both Teams to Score | 54¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/gimcheon-sangmu-fc-vs-ulsan-hd-fc-more-markets-bot-polymarket-0xf3ccec98aeb6344ece6adadce36427c489c59a413486e525a4b9023749b79b09 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | 48 |
| 2026-04-26 | 47 |
| 2026-05-03 | 33 |

_9 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Pohang Steelers FC (-2.5) −24pp 37→13¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Pohang Steelers FC (-1.5) −23pp 35→12¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Gangwon FC (-2.5) −15pp 33→18¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Gangwon FC (-2.5) −10pp 18→8¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · O/U 4.5 −10pp 19→9¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ulsan-hd-fc-vs-pohang-steelers-fc
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ulsan-hd-fc-vs-pohang-steelers-fc

## License

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