# Ulsan Mayoral Election Winner

> Kim Sang-wook leads at 73%, runner-up 25% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 52 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ulsan-mayoral-election-winner
Updated: 2026-05-28T20:20:12.563Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-03

## Headline

- Leader: Kim Sang-wook at 73%
- Runner-up: Kim Doo-kyum at 25%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $17K

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kim Sang-wook | 73¢ | +8pp | $8K | polymarket | /markets/ulsan-mayoral-election-winner-kim-sang-wook-polymarket-0xdeb647fdf84101019b915355e56168e6f629e2399763b2c32f86ce63476d8252 |
| Kim Doo-kyum | 25¢ | −5pp | $8K | polymarket | /markets/ulsan-mayoral-election-winner-kim-doo-kyum-polymarket-0x7441be9aee85e1c6d85961ca75a9439c0c377f721069e0a93db018cd0220fc14 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Kim Sang-wook | Kim Doo-kyum |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | 59 | 41 |
| 2026-05-21 | 58 | 42 |
| 2026-05-28 | 56 | 36 |

_12 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-24 · Kim Sang-wook −20pp 53→33¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-27 · Kim Doo-kyum −18pp 59→41¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-24 · Kim Doo-kyum +17pp 43→60¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-21 · Kim Sang-wook +13pp 45→58¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-27 · Kim Sang-wook +13pp 35→48¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability indicates market participants estimate a 53% chance that Kim Doo-kyum wins the Ulsan mayoral election, versus a 48% chance for Kim Sang-wook, with less than 1% probability distributed among other candidates or a tie. The tight pricing reflects genuine uncertainty between two similarly-positioned candidates. The market is pricing in factors such as recent polling data, regional voting patterns in Ulsan, each candidate's campaign momentum, and endorsements from provincial or national political figures. The resolution depends on the official election date and certified results from Ulsan authorities. Trading volume remains low on both contracts ($2,623 for Kim Sang-wook over 24 hours), suggesting limited market attention or that most positions are already established. Any significant new information about either candidate's viability, electability concerns, or shifts in Ulsan voter sentiment would likely move these probabilities meaningfully.

### Key factors

- Current polling or survey data from Ulsan showing relative support levels for each candidate
- Regional and historical voting patterns in Ulsan metropolitan elections and their predictive power for this race
- Endorsement patterns from major national political parties or provincial leadership figures
- Campaign spending and organizational strength reported for each candidate
- Official election date and any scheduled debates, candidate forums, or media events that could shift voter perception

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ulsan-mayoral-election-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ulsan-mayoral-election-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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