# Unit FDV above ___ one day after launch — $600M

> $200M leads at 62%, runner-up 54% across 8 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/unit-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:40.076Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2028-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: $200M at 62%
- Runner-up: $400M at 54%
- Outcomes: 8 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $200M | 62¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/unit-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-200m-polymarket-0x70eb82556e062975ed23ff8e07a355f132a79f17ef6267ee8be0a8c283ef7dbd |
| $400M | 54¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/unit-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-400m-polymarket-0x7751647558c676e670214b1161ba938c16417b09c7b577310ad80652d70066c1 |
| $600M | 45¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/unit-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-600m-polymarket-0xc8bf61693542486a6d63b8b2ae3a808cfbfdb0f2f0f4d95d011009d096882b91 |
| $800M | 41¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/unit-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-800m-polymarket-0xe79a0a415c0a6f012270ba152608b52caa0b721bde34ade3c808ecc63f988e7e |
| $1B | 32¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/unit-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-1b-polymarket-0x2d2be55da0447bc9e4fd4f14f4c8ea3a81031fb44ff8105b23469d6b4ef1e60b |
| $1.5B | 28¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/unit-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-15b-polymarket-0xec250d64dc6ea833256ae22e85dc47f1c613f7ad97be4f0be0948ac7c78b2fad |
| $2B | 22¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/unit-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-2b-polymarket-0xa76a275f67052768be0d7ea46a8f181e8371c448bca393d6108c44fa40293c81 |
| $3B | 12¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/unit-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-3b-polymarket-0x235ad1d416e9b135f6e36a796b4e410de36083be2a60b4831da9cb316037b03c |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | $200M | $400M | $600M |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 48 | 43 | 35 |
| 2026-04-24 | 63 | 56 | 42 |
| 2026-04-25 | — | 55 | 41 |
| 2026-05-02 | 62 | 54 | 48 |
| 2026-05-07 | 62 | 52 | 51 |
| 2026-05-08 | — | 52 | — |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · $2B −13pp 39→26¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · $800M +12pp 28→40¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · $800M −10pp 49→39¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · $800M +9pp 40→49¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · $600M +8pp 40→48¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market estimates a 62% probability that a newly launched token will reach a $600 million fully diluted valuation within one day of launch. The probability reflects trader expectations about initial demand and token allocation across multiple potential projects. The current level suggests moderate confidence in hitting this valuation threshold, with comparable benchmarks (such as recent token launches and fundraising rounds) influencing estimates. Upward pressure would come from strong pre-launch hype, institutional interest, or favorable market conditions, while downward pressure would result from reduced enthusiasm, market volatility, or lower-than-expected initial trading volume. The key uncertainty centers on actual trading volumes and price discovery in the first 24 hours post-launch, which will ultimately determine whether the $600M FDV threshold is reached.

### Key factors

- Historical token launch performance data: Recent token launches and their day-one FDVs provide concrete benchmarks for estimating whether a typical project reaches $600M valuation
- Pre-launch funding round size and valuation: The project's seed or Series A valuation and total capital raised directly correlate with initial FDV expectations and market participant positioning
- Initial trading volume and exchange listing scope: Day-one FDV depends critically on available liquidity and which trading venues list the token at launch
- Broader crypto market conditions: Bitcoin and Ethereum price movements, market sentiment indices, and overall trading volumes significantly influence altcoin launch enthusiasm
- Comparison against related outcomes: The 17¢ price for the $800M threshold and 44¢ for the $500M threshold suggest diminishing probability at higher valuations, indicating clustered expectations around $500-800M range

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/unit-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=unit-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.