# United States vs. Paraguay

> United States leads at 49%, runner-up 27% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/united-states-vs-paraguay
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:43.331Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-13

## Headline

- Leader: United States at 49%
- Runner-up: Paraguay at 27%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 49¢ | ±0 | $634 | polymarket | /markets/united-states-vs-paraguay-united-states-polymarket-0x26c10c27cde58e2d6214d65ab562d8142d34723b3b6ec3f40836d24f6d22dfc9 |
| Paraguay | 27¢ | +1pp | $100 | polymarket | /markets/united-states-vs-paraguay-paraguay-polymarket-0x86f102a31cf4b12dbcf31ae8c62c526c0b538d5b7eb1af5947d0b0378522f926 |
| Draw (United States vs. Paraguay) | 26¢ | −1pp | $1K | polymarket | /markets/united-states-vs-paraguay-draw-united-states-vs-pa-polymarket-0x3774cdf17e49143a4f6e10812df8b06113731493842fccc52dea045a1744ae61 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | United States | Paraguay | Draw (United States vs. Paraguay) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 48 | 26 | — |
| 2026-05-01 | 46 | — | — |
| 2026-05-02 | 48 | 27 | 27 |
| 2026-05-03 | 49 | — | 27 |
| 2026-05-06 | 49 | 27 | 26 |
| 2026-05-07 | — | 28 | — |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This market reflects a 49% probability that the United States will engage in a military conflict with Paraguay before a specified resolution date. The underlying contracts span unrelated U.S. policy actions—from aviation industry stakes to potential Greenland acquisition—suggesting the Paraguay outcome aggregates sentiment about broader U.S. geopolitical positioning and interventionist policy. The probability remains elevated despite Paraguay's geographic distance and limited current U.S.-Paraguay tensions, indicating traders may be pricing in either a sharp escalation in regional instability, a change in U.S. foreign policy doctrine, or cross-asset correlations with other tracked outcomes. Resolution depends on whether any military engagement occurs, with timing and severity thresholds critical to contract settlement. Current trading volume and the runner-up at 27% suggest meaningful disagreement among participants about baseline conflict risk.

### Key factors

- No documented military tensions between U.S. and Paraguay currently exist; any conflict would require a significant and sudden geopolitical shift
- The 49% leader probability contradicts the 34% median across top individual contracts, suggesting possible data aggregation anomalies or mismatch between stated question structure and binding outcomes
- Historical U.S.-Paraguay relations have been diplomatic and trade-focused; Paraguay hosts limited U.S. military infrastructure compared to other regional partners
- Resolution criteria and date thresholds are not explicitly provided in the available contract data, creating ambiguity about what events trigger settlement
- Trading volume varies dramatically across contracts ($51k to $1.5k daily), indicating thin liquidity and potential for outsized moves from smaller position changes

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/united-states-vs-paraguay
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=united-states-vs-paraguay

## License

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