# Who will be the next Secretary-General of UN

> Rafael Grossi leads at 61%, runner-up 22% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/unsec
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:41.221Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-05

## Headline

- Leader: Rafael Grossi at 61%
- Runner-up: Rebeca Grynspan at 22%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $74

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Grossi | 61¢ | +3pp | $44 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-the-next-secretary-general-of-un-rafae-kalshi-kxunsec-27jan-rgro |
| Rebeca Grynspan | 22¢ | −1pp | $30 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-the-next-secretary-general-of-un-rebec-kalshi-kxunsec-27jan-rgryn |
| Michelle Bachelet | 8¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-the-next-secretary-general-of-un-miche-kalshi-kxunsec-27jan-mbac |
| Mia Mottley | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-be-the-next-secretary-general-of-un-mia-m-kalshi-kxunsec-27jan-mmot |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Rafael Grossi | Rebeca Grynspan | Michelle Bachelet |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | — | 17 | — |
| 2026-04-10 | — | 18 | 4 |
| 2026-04-11 | 45 | 17 | 4 |
| 2026-04-24 | 58 | 26 | 6 |
| 2026-04-25 | 58 | — | 5 |
| 2026-05-01 | 56 | 27 | 8 |
| 2026-05-02 | 61 | — | — |
| 2026-05-07 | 60 | 21 | 11 |
| 2026-05-08 | 63 | — | — |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Rafael Grossi +5pp 56→61¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Rebeca Grynspan −5pp 27→22¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Rafael Grossi −4pp 61→57¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · Rafael Grossi +3pp 60→63¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The 58% probability for the current leader reflects market expectations about who will become the next UN Secretary-General, based on limited trading activity across four contracts. The UN Secretary-General position is typically determined through negotiation among Security Council permanent members and General Assembly consensus, making outcomes difficult to predict far in advance. The current leader's elevated probability suggests traders view this candidate as having stronger diplomatic backing or fewer obstacles than alternatives. Key drivers of movement would include shifts in geopolitical alignments, statements from major powers about their preferences, or public announcements of candidacy. The next significant catalyst would be formal nomination announcements and Security Council preliminary votes, which typically occur in the months immediately preceding a scheduled leadership transition. Low overall trading volume ($23,480 in 24-hour activity) suggests limited market depth and potentially volatile price movements with concentrated positions.

### Key factors

- The current 58% probability is derived from a single leading contract; the runner-up alternative trades at only 22%, indicating meaningful market differentiation between candidates
- UN Secretary-General selection requires consensus from Security Council permanent members (US, UK, France, Russia, China), meaning vetoes by any member could eliminate leading candidates regardless of their contract price
- Trading volume is concentrated and low ($23,480 across the entire 4-contract set in 24 hours), suggesting prices may reflect thin liquidity rather than deep conviction from multiple informed traders
- The next Secretary-General term will follow the current term's 2026 end date, making formal nomination announcements and Security Council veto rounds the primary catalysts for probability shifts
- Historical UN leadership transitions involve confidential diplomatic negotiations that become public only after preliminary agreement, limiting information available for market participants to price until late-stage disclosure

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/unsec
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=unsec

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.