# Urawa Red Diamonds vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba

> Closed. Last odds frozen 2 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/urawa-red-diamonds-vs-jef-united-ichihara-chiba
Updated: 2026-05-07T06:35:43.886Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Probability: 30% (liquidity-weighted across 19 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (19 contracts)
- 24h volume: $4K

## Bound contracts (19)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Tōkyō | 68¢ | −31pp | $1K | polymarket | /markets/fc-tky-vs-jef-united-ichihara-chiba-fc-tky-polymarket-0xd5f09f6d966dd3c8727eb13c91200ba46ed87cbb31a67eb0a7d56a806cc73626 |
| Draw (FC Tōkyō vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba) | 21¢ | −2pp | $958 | polymarket | /markets/fc-tky-vs-jef-united-ichihara-chiba-draw-fc-tky-vs-polymarket-0xb361f90bba3856675aa64542ccaf60644763b8474aab2dc6e0a5ee413d9f8895 |
| O/U 4.5 | 14¢ | ±0 | $738 | polymarket | /markets/fc-tky-vs-jef-united-ichihara-chiba-more-markets-o-polymarket-0x371c76e1be96a44ed1b3fe9c187813b39f4ab0a2d3630296cbe029302669f813 |
| JEF United Ichihara Chiba | 12¢ | +28pp | $501 | polymarket | /markets/fc-tky-vs-jef-united-ichihara-chiba-jef-united-ich-polymarket-0xdc8c78eda79ade97956dba9bf9eab7206e09111b0fd180b5111cfdbd49afb5f6 |
| O/U 2.5 | 48¢ | −16pp | $313 | polymarket | /markets/kashiwa-reysol-vs-urawa-red-diamonds-more-markets-polymarket-0x137a07a40c862c48fa20e4bf0903615799188d89173bc6a02ef8f36908f75c60 |
| FC Tōkyō (-1.5) | 42¢ | −13pp | $188 | polymarket | /markets/fc-tky-vs-jef-united-ichihara-chiba-more-markets-f-polymarket-0x3724ce935c950bdee92ab9a7bccf463e09268169716ba78066ecb90f53e98650 |
| Kashiwa Reysol | 43¢ | −15pp | $168 | polymarket | /markets/kashiwa-reysol-vs-urawa-red-diamonds-kashiwa-reyso-polymarket-0x3481b3be832eae49ff416e4730a50ec37ee10928a54e55e58a4f73d080267cd2 |
| O/U 3.5 | 26¢ | −8pp | $164 | polymarket | /markets/kashiwa-reysol-vs-urawa-red-diamonds-more-markets-polymarket-0x1ae4fa2b0e1cebe32000a741ec07dc113ec3cbc71d668d9f2ebf47f090557485 |
| Urawa Red Diamonds | 30¢ | +18pp | $101 | polymarket | /markets/kashiwa-reysol-vs-urawa-red-diamonds-urawa-red-dia-polymarket-0xa86687cc94ddd23f585f0c182515c5f8d36ad40a4991b55a149f4b68c4e7d447 |
| Draw (Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds) | 28¢ | −5pp | $98 | polymarket | /markets/kashiwa-reysol-vs-urawa-red-diamonds-draw-kashiwa-polymarket-0xbb1d85c0653835874de6ae3e0cd7911ea44b6062031b0280882f1f94a820f498 |
| JEF United Ichihara Chiba (-1.5) | 3¢ | +17pp | $7 | polymarket | /markets/fc-tky-vs-jef-united-ichihara-chiba-more-markets-j-polymarket-0x6d4f0c510ebcdb69b7b6b129d6e60732f25b99d1f0574ff58ee6df211ddb5c80 |
| O/U 1.5 | 73¢ | −11pp | $4 | polymarket | /markets/kashiwa-reysol-vs-urawa-red-diamonds-more-markets-polymarket-0xde55263f4843ff39efeba08884e6e92b2af80fddf4ce93586dc5b12736b29dbc |
| Kashiwa Reysol (-2.5) | 8¢ | −19pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kashiwa-reysol-vs-urawa-red-diamonds-more-markets-polymarket-0xadcf744a9640a6e377fe9053eb64b43a37dba200eb2040bcd1e199d9e34df821 |
| Both Teams to Score | 53¢ | −13pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kashiwa-reysol-vs-urawa-red-diamonds-more-markets-polymarket-0x1083aaebb1ee5fc7669e00ffbd7f30b223c37ffbf72564e37c39f9b5fd9404fd |
| Urawa Red Diamonds (-1.5) | 11¢ | −13pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kashiwa-reysol-vs-urawa-red-diamonds-more-markets-polymarket-0xf874fea23e2749a660cf3f2d2f1b359d0e892dad6460eba65a6fb5b54c532d7f |
| Kashiwa Reysol (-1.5) | 20¢ | −14pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kashiwa-reysol-vs-urawa-red-diamonds-more-markets-polymarket-0x13fca10ff23581e6dd606f11f66f4c391c6466503af462fce73756afe0c09be2 |
| Urawa Red Diamonds (-2.5) | 5¢ | −12pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kashiwa-reysol-vs-urawa-red-diamonds-more-markets-polymarket-0xc60a6d5f37835d039139ee7a805003c7133a8aeb3a9aeb4c1c0175e32981d8a2 |
| O/U 4.5 | 12¢ | −4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kashiwa-reysol-vs-urawa-red-diamonds-more-markets-polymarket-0x8c771d9b5ed14085fc1ecfaa14fc44e10b34e74333cd7ee161efeb124e340d08 |
| Both Teams to Score | 47¢ | +5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fc-tky-vs-jef-united-ichihara-chiba-more-markets-b-polymarket-0x47d52bb27d62033542236cf8ed946ec29d0cdd9661b710c76d54838848879c5a |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 36 |
| 2026-05-02 | 32 |
| 2026-05-03 | 35 |
| 2026-05-06 | 28 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · FC Tōkyō −31pp 66→35¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · JEF United Ichihara Chiba +28pp 13→41¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Kashiwa Reysol (-2.5) −19pp 28→9¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · FC Tōkyō +18pp 48→66¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Urawa Red Diamonds +18pp 32→50¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/urawa-red-diamonds-vs-jef-united-ichihara-chiba
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=urawa-red-diamonds-vs-jef-united-ichihara-chiba

## License

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