# Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Yokohama F·Marinos

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 30% across 20 contracts — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/urawa-red-diamonds-vs-yokohama-fmarinos
Updated: 2026-05-03T17:35:59.793Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 30% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $20

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O/U 2.5 | 47¢ | — | $12 | polymarket | /markets/fc-machida-zelvia-vs-yokohama-fmarinos-more-market-polymarket-0x59499bef9849261e4b9a1ed19b402cdaad03979d63037448d867f53f325f4dcd |
| Yokohama F·Marinos (-2.5) | 6¢ | +3pp | $8 | polymarket | /markets/fc-machida-zelvia-vs-yokohama-fmarinos-more-market-polymarket-0x91f635f47aac21a126bfa229b83dc8da2b7fb03b89bcf60c832da1e2848161e3 |
| Kashiwa Reysol | 47¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kashiwa-reysol-vs-urawa-red-diamonds-kashiwa-reyso-polymarket-0x3481b3be832eae49ff416e4730a50ec37ee10928a54e55e58a4f73d080267cd2 |
| Urawa Red Diamonds | 27¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kashiwa-reysol-vs-urawa-red-diamonds-urawa-red-dia-polymarket-0xa86687cc94ddd23f585f0c182515c5f8d36ad40a4991b55a149f4b68c4e7d447 |
| O/U 1.5 | 73¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kashiwa-reysol-vs-urawa-red-diamonds-more-markets-polymarket-0xde55263f4843ff39efeba08884e6e92b2af80fddf4ce93586dc5b12736b29dbc |
| Urawa Red Diamonds (-2.5) | 11¢ | −4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kashiwa-reysol-vs-urawa-red-diamonds-more-markets-polymarket-0xc60a6d5f37835d039139ee7a805003c7133a8aeb3a9aeb4c1c0175e32981d8a2 |
| Kashiwa Reysol (-2.5) | 12¢ | −4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kashiwa-reysol-vs-urawa-red-diamonds-more-markets-polymarket-0xadcf744a9640a6e377fe9053eb64b43a37dba200eb2040bcd1e199d9e34df821 |
| O/U 4.5 | 11¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kashiwa-reysol-vs-urawa-red-diamonds-more-markets-polymarket-0x8c771d9b5ed14085fc1ecfaa14fc44e10b34e74333cd7ee161efeb124e340d08 |
| Draw (Kashiwa Reysol vs. Urawa Red Diamonds) | 26¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kashiwa-reysol-vs-urawa-red-diamonds-draw-kashiwa-polymarket-0xbb1d85c0653835874de6ae3e0cd7911ea44b6062031b0280882f1f94a820f498 |
| Urawa Red Diamonds (-1.5) | 12¢ | −3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kashiwa-reysol-vs-urawa-red-diamonds-more-markets-polymarket-0xf874fea23e2749a660cf3f2d2f1b359d0e892dad6460eba65a6fb5b54c532d7f |
| O/U 2.5 | 48¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kashiwa-reysol-vs-urawa-red-diamonds-more-markets-polymarket-0x137a07a40c862c48fa20e4bf0903615799188d89173bc6a02ef8f36908f75c60 |
| Both Teams to Score | 54¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kashiwa-reysol-vs-urawa-red-diamonds-more-markets-polymarket-0x1083aaebb1ee5fc7669e00ffbd7f30b223c37ffbf72564e37c39f9b5fd9404fd |
| O/U 3.5 | 26¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kashiwa-reysol-vs-urawa-red-diamonds-more-markets-polymarket-0x1ae4fa2b0e1cebe32000a741ec07dc113ec3cbc71d668d9f2ebf47f090557485 |
| Kashiwa Reysol (-1.5) | 23¢ | −8pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kashiwa-reysol-vs-urawa-red-diamonds-more-markets-polymarket-0x13fca10ff23581e6dd606f11f66f4c391c6466503af462fce73756afe0c09be2 |
| FC Machida Zelvia | 54¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fc-machida-zelvia-vs-yokohama-fmarinos-fc-machida-polymarket-0xfadb01e7f045fbe7275e9fa50a8a50a31649704b88049a32a0cb014cb47063e0 |
| Both Teams to Score | 49¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fc-machida-zelvia-vs-yokohama-fmarinos-more-market-polymarket-0x3f4aee4f0bd42c560dbc0bd1ce71f7af824e265312731cf81bb2cbc6191b054d |
| O/U 3.5 | 20¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fc-machida-zelvia-vs-yokohama-fmarinos-more-market-polymarket-0x370751f97151c1dba8a99a75e06a4b64f63102fc30f33f53f88590aa42a2ca9a |
| O/U 4.5 | 12¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fc-machida-zelvia-vs-yokohama-fmarinos-more-market-polymarket-0x2d1ff3b3fa076446bfd24c728f5fe9db7cc136114a04ac3af2700ad1db34fa68 |
| Draw (FC Machida Zelvia vs. Yokohama F·Marinos) | 26¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fc-machida-zelvia-vs-yokohama-fmarinos-draw-fc-mac-polymarket-0xe986c183f53966656b15fd4edb7ac990287d87cd2822e35deb32ec16ee32e0f1 |
| FC Machida Zelvia (-2.5) | 14¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fc-machida-zelvia-vs-yokohama-fmarinos-more-market-polymarket-0xbe04137a61065209207d8e048618cc97dc1587c58ade0a2218ede2adaf8b65c7 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 36 |
| 2026-05-02 | 37 |
| 2026-05-03 | 37 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Kashiwa Reysol (-1.5) −8pp 37→29¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Urawa Red Diamonds (-2.5) −4pp 28→24¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Kashiwa Reysol (-2.5) −4pp 32→28¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Yokohama F·Marinos (-2.5) +3pp 34→37¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Urawa Red Diamonds (-1.5) −3pp 28→25¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

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## License

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