# Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde

> Uruguay leads at 65%, runner-up 27% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/uruguay-vs-cabo-verde
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:23.432Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-21

## Headline

- Leader: Uruguay at 65%
- Runner-up: Draw (Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde) at 27%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uruguay | 65¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/uruguay-vs-cabo-verde-uruguay-polymarket-0x08d56195e88cedb87eeff396bd35e8b67d031e586169b3bc937b3095b3cdfe43 |
| Draw (Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde) | 27¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/uruguay-vs-cabo-verde-draw-uruguay-vs-cabo-verde-polymarket-0x2d8a8c670430061537dd6cb60c0fee0d0e0a4a3430fd00fcb390301f53e7b4d9 |
| Cabo Verde | 16¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/uruguay-vs-cabo-verde-cabo-verde-polymarket-0x21454470816337a6dadbea2140070a57ec40146b8e65bba2fbf8e4216ea6f0a1 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Uruguay | Draw (Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde) | Cabo Verde |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | — | 26 | 16 |
| 2026-05-01 | 66 | 28 | 17 |
| 2026-05-02 | 67 | 25 | 16 |
| 2026-05-09 | 66 | 25 | 14 |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Draw (Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde) +4pp 24→28¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Draw (Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde) −3pp 28→25¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Draw (Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde) −3pp 28→25¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Uruguay −3pp 69→66¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Uruguay will defeat Cabo Verde in an upcoming match. The 69% level suggests moderately strong confidence in a Uruguay victory, though not overwhelming. Uruguay's positioning stems from factors including historical head-to-head records, FIFA rankings, and squad strength. Related market prices show Uruguay also favored against Saudi Arabia (64%) and less favored in a potential Uruguay vs. Spain matchup (38%), indicating the markets view this as a competitive but leaning-favored scenario for Uruguay. The main catalysts affecting this probability would be team news (injuries, roster changes), recent form, and betting flow as match day approaches. Outcome confirmation will occur once the match concludes and results are official.

### Key factors

- Uruguay is priced at 69% while Cabo Verde sits at 24%, indicating a clear but not decisive market preference for the Uruguayan outcome
- The highest-volume related contract (Spain vs. Cabo Verde at 90¢) suggests market participants view Cabo Verde as substantially weaker than top-tier competitors
- Uruguay's price against Saudi Arabia (64%) is only 5 points lower than against Cabo Verde, suggesting modest confidence differentiation between opponents
- The Uruguay vs. Spain matchup prices (38% Uruguay, 23% Draw) show Uruguay as underdog in a three-way scenario, indicating relative competitive context
- Trading volume on the direct Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde contract ($36 aggregate) is lower than Spain vs. Cabo Verde ($96), potentially indicating less market certainty or interest

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

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