# Uruguay vs. Spain

> Spain leads at 49%, runner-up 33% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/uruguay-vs-spain
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:50:43.921Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-27

## Headline

- Leader: Spain at 49%
- Runner-up: Draw (Uruguay vs. Spain) at 33%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 49¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/uruguay-vs-spain-spain-polymarket-0xe322faca2a534900680db54e3a4349a61427d347b6f906d2eeb01f81ae1b082c |
| Draw (Uruguay vs. Spain) | 33¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/uruguay-vs-spain-draw-uruguay-vs-spain-polymarket-0xd0fa27da024261ba5edb5e9eda33651a224fb5a2137d3c9e73b216109b12dd79 |
| Uruguay | 16¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/uruguay-vs-spain-uruguay-polymarket-0x61b80a4a7a325eba229ccfa35aaef9cf5879a4ad38bee2fef49a0359d823d9ca |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Spain | Draw (Uruguay vs. Spain) | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | — | 32 | 31 |
| 2026-05-01 | 62 | 30 | 31 |
| 2026-05-02 | 61 | 28 | 31 |
| 2026-05-09 | 49 | 31 | 16 |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Uruguay −22pp 36→14¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Spain −13pp 63→50¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Draw (Uruguay vs. Spain) +10pp 21→31¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Draw (Uruguay vs. Spain) −7pp 28→21¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Uruguay +5pp 31→36¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 63% probability indicates that traders currently assess Uruguay as the favorite to win an upcoming match against Spain, though the outcome remains genuinely uncertain. The probability reflects market expectations based on recent form, head-to-head history, and squad composition. Spain's strength in recent international competitions and high odds in other matchups (90¢ vs. Cabo Verde, 87¢ vs. Saudi Arabia) suggest some traders view them as strong overall. However, the Uruguay contract at 38¢ reflects meaningful backing for an upset. The match result will definitively resolve this contract on the scheduled game date. Key variables include team lineups, recent injury status, home-field advantage if applicable, and any tactical adjustments either side employs. The relatively modest trading volume ($28 24h) suggests moderate market interest compared to larger sports betting contracts.

### Key factors

- Spain has priced higher than Uruguay in other concurrent contracts (90¢ and 87¢ respectively), yet Uruguay leads in this direct matchup at 64¢ in a different contract pair
- The three-way market structure includes a 23¢ draw option, meaning 100% of probability is distributed across Uruguay (38¢), Spain (not shown in Uruguay vs Spain contracts but implied), and draws
- Trading volume on the Uruguay vs Spain contract is $28 in 24h, lower than Spain's other matchups, suggesting either less certainty or less participation from sharps
- The contract prices across different match pairings (Spain 87-90¢ vs weaker opponents, Uruguay 64¢ vs Saudi Arabia) create arbitrage signals about relative team strength
- Final resolution depends entirely on match outcome with no partial settlement or contingent scenarios

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/uruguay-vs-spain
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=uruguay-vs-spain

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.