# U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by...

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 25% across 20 contracts — refreshed 4 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/us-anticartel-ground-operation-mexico
Updated: 2026-05-03T21:05:52.341Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 25% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 37% / Polymarket 15% — 22pp spread
- 24h volume: $10K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2027 | 18¢ | −2pp | $6K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-us-sovereign-wealth-fund-be-operational-b-kalshi-kxusfund-27 |
| May 31 | 8¢ | ±0 | $2K | polymarket | /markets/israel-ground-operation-in-iran-confirmed-by-may-3-polymarket-0x84dbc9b70121e40e84a05a0d3b8c1d3bc2f35d4da87b8082d11c99c58f124891 |
| June 30, 2026 | 5¢ | ±0 | $1K | polymarket | /markets/claudia-sheinbaum-out-as-president-of-mexico-by-ju-polymarket-0x5649a937907e0db6814f3fcbfa68e9f78a700d8c0e38ce652a572d97e205640d |
| June 30, 2026 | 3¢ | +1pp | $337 | polymarket | /markets/us-nuclear-test-by-june-30-2026-polymarket-0x5ac7d0d23ee64e4f0b9c2b58155773fe7080dbb4a4f07aa5a39aac79038c7932 |
| Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? | 7¢ | — | $288 | polymarket | /markets/will-the-us-invade-mexico-in-2026-polymarket-0x1015d806e33eebde7edb0762f1197051575f6286b5f06261d8e4ff4d34c90697 |
| June 30 | 6¢ | −2pp | $143 | polymarket | /markets/us-x-russia-nuclear-deal-by-june-30-polymarket-0x0f9e5bd480cc8c085ec2f229d8fc8d892f6b16c53d16b9e2bd8ea78bb7be20b4 |
| December 31 | 13¢ | −1pp | $38 | polymarket | /markets/us-strike-on-mexico-by-december-31-polymarket-0xb23e6d6ba72e76bbce9799daf527e3598a939a602ff5e069cf27a0b25bab50a7 |
| December 31, 2026 | 56¢ | −14pp | $17 | polymarket | /markets/trump-suspends-us-entry-for-more-countries-by-dece-polymarket-0x5cd420bc92ac455342c51c1c78f07d8e3de7eeed4ca2ade2759e5eae763f3d5f |
| December 31, 2026 | 9¢ | +1pp | $11 | polymarket | /markets/claudia-sheinbaum-out-as-president-of-mexico-by-de-polymarket-0xd6a886fffdd98f3a1be18b11f6a5eefa501139b370f4ed449c1f377345a0b977 |
| June 30, 2026 | 11¢ | +16pp | $10 | polymarket | /markets/us-embassy-in-damascus-reopened-by-june-30-2026-polymarket-0x33fb07add905d9a65176839cda7faf7844924c211b4366c62d4b51e85131fbf9 |
| Democrats, 21+ pts | 32¢ | +18pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-democrats-in-the-us-kalshi-kxmidtermmov-nmsend-p21 |
| Democrats, 27+ pts | 10¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-democrats-in-the-us-kalshi-kxmidtermmov-nmsend-p27 |
| September 30, 2026 | 8¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/us-nuclear-test-by-september-30-2026-polymarket-0x6be3d6364e9a88a17f1fd993629de7a1a7f37ee23a9b15bf9af66834497bec0e |
| Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 6.80ㅤ?: Above 6.80ㅤ | 13¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-united-states-average-price-ground-beef-100-b-kalshi-kxusgbeef-26may12-t6.80 |
| Democrats, 9+ pts | 73¢ | +9pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-democrats-in-the-us-kalshi-kxmidtermmov-nmsend-p9 |
| Democrats, 15+ pts | 56¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-democrats-in-the-us-kalshi-kxmidtermmov-nmsend-p15 |
| June 30 | 40¢ | +5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/trump-suspends-us-entry-for-more-countries-by-june-polymarket-0xeabc30243adc43df3a0608ca3c2a073686f0d76e810f13e5604d34610e43c234 |
| Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 6.72ㅤ?: Above 6.72ㅤ | 41¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-united-states-average-price-ground-beef-100-b-kalshi-kxusgbeef-26may12-t6.72 |
| Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 6.78ㅤ?: Above 6.78ㅤ | 13¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-united-states-average-price-ground-beef-100-b-kalshi-kxusgbeef-26may12-t6.78 |
| Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 6.66ㅤ?: Above 6.66ㅤ | 76¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-united-states-average-price-ground-beef-100-b-kalshi-kxusgbeef-26may12-t6.66 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 23 |
| 2026-04-19 | 22 |
| 2026-04-26 | 23 |
| 2026-05-03 | 31 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-28 · June 30, 2026 +19pp 2→21¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-30 · June 30, 2026 −18pp 21→3¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · June 30 +18pp 8→26¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-29 · June 30 −18pp 26→8¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-30 · Democrats, 21+ pts +18pp 14→32¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/us-anticartel-ground-operation-mexico
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=us-anticartel-ground-operation-mexico

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.