# U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 30% across 20 contracts — refreshed 29 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/us-anticartel-operation-outside-of-us
Updated: 2026-05-03T12:05:43.583Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-04-30

## Headline

- Probability: 30% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 28% / Polymarket 37% — 9pp spread
- 24h volume: $371K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | 30¢ | −2pp | $230K | polymarket | /markets/will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027-polymarket-0x5db999fad322cea2914535aae5517060c3f80ad6d8c0231cde2124a434d16846 |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | 28¢ | ±0 | $61K | polymarket | /markets/will-the-us-invade-cuba-in-2026-polymarket-0x80ebf0a88a44bf737d4047b3accd7108285c69b84257e5c684bdc4c715c81139 |
| Before 2027 | 21¢ | +1pp | $57K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens-exist-before-2027-kalshi-kxaliens-27 |
| Rating reduced | 22¢ | −14pp | $5K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-us-credit-rating-be-downgraded-by-decembe-kalshi-kxcreditrating-26dec31 |
| Before 2027 | 24¢ | −2pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-us-sovereign-wealth-fund-be-operational-b-kalshi-kxusfund-27 |
| Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? | 93¢ | +1pp | $4K | polymarket | /markets/will-the-iranian-regime-survive-us-military-strike-polymarket-0xefc69f5f48827e331957acbcc2339eb3b15e27e32453b8e6f29b5de67474c986 |
| Democratic Party | 48¢ | −1pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-democrats-win-the-us-senate-in-2026-democrati-kalshi-controls-2026-d |
| Republican Party | 50¢ | −1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-republicans-win-the-us-senate-in-2026-republi-kalshi-controls-2026-r |
| Republicans, 4+ pts | 6¢ | −6pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-republicans-in-the-kalshi-kxmidtermmov-ohsenr-p4 |
| Democrats, 8+ pts | 4¢ | −1pp | $950 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-democrats-in-the-us-kalshi-kxmidtermmov-ohsend-p8 |
| Republican Party | 9¢ | −1pp | $924 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-republican-party-loses-majority-control-o-kalshi-kxlosemajority-27jan01 |
| Democrats, 11+ pts | 63¢ | −3pp | $684 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-democrats-in-the-us-kalshi-kxmidtermmov-mnsend-p11 |
| Democrats, 2+ pts | 24¢ | ±0 | $483 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-democrats-in-the-us-kalshi-kxmidtermmov-iasend-p2 |
| Democrats, 4+ pts | 21¢ | −4pp | $469 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-democrats-in-the-us-kalshi-kxmidtermmov-ohsend-p4 |
| Democrats, 6+ pts | 15¢ | −1pp | $442 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-democrats-in-the-us-kalshi-kxmidtermmov-ohsend-p6 |
| Republicans win | 14¢ | −1pp | $416 | kalshi | /markets/will-republicans-win-the-2026-us-house-of-represen-kalshi-kxhousepopvotemargin-27nov03-b50 |
| Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? | 7¢ | −31pp | $393 | polymarket | /markets/will-the-us-invade-greenland-in-2026-polymarket-0xe723e5e63c14e387c03cb37b11d79fa88f46a302503175b56cd9f68ecbc00a20 |
| Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? | 26¢ | ±0 | $304 | polymarket | /markets/will-the-us-invade-a-latin-american-country-in-202-polymarket-0x984ee41a6ca3a79a425befa1dc635ff8204cd29550190b8363ae6a1250c1677d |
| Republicans, 1+ pts | 11¢ | −2pp | $75 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-republicans-in-the-kalshi-kxmidtermmov-ncsenr-p1 |
| Republicans, 30+ pts | 84¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-republicans-in-the-kalshi-kxmidtermmov-wysenr-p30 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 31 |
| 2026-04-19 | 40 |
| 2026-04-26 | 23 |
| 2026-05-03 | 31 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-29 · Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? −31pp 38→7¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? +30pp 8→38¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Rating reduced −14pp 35→21¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-29 · Republicans, 4+ pts +14pp 16→30¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-30 · Democrats, 6+ pts −14pp 30→16¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

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## License

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