# US economic state at the end of 2026

> Closed. Last odds frozen 5 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/us-economic-state
Updated: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z
Category: economy
Status: historical
Closes: 2027-01-31

## Headline

- Leader: Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) at 46%
- Runner-up: Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) at 36%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) | 46¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/us-economic-state-at-the-end-of-2026-overheating-u-polymarket-0x4e54fc57fcd566b9c7a25fe7a6ed9596ffe1eb95489ba25575b1c4af0ac798f6 |
| Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) | 36¢ | −3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/us-economic-state-at-the-end-of-2026-soft-landing-polymarket-0x50e3ee8f93a464d04ea2cea6efff45c902f43642aedbf43f7afdc899e10f71d8 |
| Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) | 32¢ | +6pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/us-economic-state-at-the-end-of-2026-slack-unemplo-polymarket-0x53ba15f24a0194c2ef422cc023d26e86ab03a7fd36a62cb8c0eacf5c2a22cae0 |
| Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) | 18¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/us-economic-state-at-the-end-of-2026-stagflation-u-polymarket-0x9b1804352d6246bc8b609bc05a3021134269c133bda15e76e05f844539b59774 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) | Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) | Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-25 | 51 | 22 | — |
| 2026-05-27 | 62 | 21 | 27 |
| 2026-06-10 | 48 | 28 | — |
| 2026-06-11 | 48 | 28 | 28 |
| 2026-06-17 | 48 | 35 | 27 |
| 2026-06-18 | 48 | 32 | 33 |

_25 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-18 · Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) +6pp 27→33¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-18 · Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) −3pp 35→32¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

Markets are pricing a 42% chance that the U.S. economy will show overheating conditions by year-end 2026, defined as unemployment below 5.0% and inflation at or above 3.5%. This outcome reflects traders' assessment that despite recent cooling efforts, labor markets remain tight and price pressures persist. The current probability sits above the soft-landing scenario (25%) but competes with stagflation and slack-economy outcomes. The main factors driving this level are the trajectory of Federal Reserve policy decisions through 2026 and incoming inflation data releases, which will signal whether current economic momentum can be sustained without reigniting price growth. The monthly consumer price index and employment reports through November 2026 will be critical in determining whether this outcome materializes, with particular attention to core inflation trends and wage growth relative to productivity gains.

### Key factors

- Federal funds rate path from mid-2026 onward: higher rates would reduce overheating risk, while paused or cut rates would increase it
- Quarterly inflation data through Q3 2026: sustained CPI readings above 3.5% core would support the overheating thesis
- Labor force participation and wage growth rates: strong wage gains with tight labor markets would reinforce overheating conditions
- Supply-side shocks or energy price movements: negative shocks could push inflation higher independent of demand-side tightness
- Economic growth rate in first and second quarters of 2026: sustained above-trend growth would make unemployment below 5.0% more likely

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/us-economic-state
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=us-economic-state

## License

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