# US GDP growth in Q1 2026 — <1.0%

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 55% across 8 contracts — refreshed 56 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/us-gdp-growth-q1
Updated: 2026-06-08T02:20:11.096Z
Category: economy · Topic: recession
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-31

## Headline

- Probability: 55% (liquidity-weighted across 8 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 90% / Polymarket 20% — 70pp spread
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 2.6% | 70¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-spain-gdp-growth-rate-yoy-for-q1-2026-be-abov-kalshi-kxesgdpyoyf-26jun25-t2.6 |
| Above 2.4% | 96¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-spain-gdp-growth-rate-yoy-for-q1-2026-be-abov-kalshi-kxesgdpyoyf-26jun25-t2.4 |
| Above 2.2% | 97¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-spain-gdp-growth-rate-yoy-for-q1-2026-be-abov-kalshi-kxesgdpyoyf-26jun25-t2.2 |
| Above 2.0% | 96¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-spain-gdp-growth-rate-yoy-for-q1-2026-be-abov-kalshi-kxesgdpyoyf-26jun25-t2.0 |
| 6.0-7.0% | 29¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/eurozone-annual-gdp-growth-2026-60-70-polymarket-0xe531b038463306e142ec396b4249022f5eb8c082733d4f76662332e4f0fa8c27 |
| 3.3% | 16¢ | −7pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/2026-world-gdp-growth-33-polymarket-0xb8e453f1147b9ed4b0303476ca53d065137dee9ab0286e9b281e1c9eb1e3b627 |
| Negative GDP growth in 2026? | 8¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/negative-gdp-growth-in-2026-polymarket-0xd8c1b0a73653b1fb4fb6e8d13d0063d25810870d7ddf83e61fffb4de4522edf1 |
| <0% | 25¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/eurozone-annual-gdp-growth-2026-0-polymarket-0x426e80109336e68bf5f9a4b6edadc6831639d104e5892750fdf626f8dfbfdbcd |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 59 |
| 2026-05-25 | 54 |
| 2026-06-01 | 57 |
| 2026-06-07 | 28 |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-01 · 6.0-7.0% +16pp 13→29¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-02 · 3.3% +13pp 8→21¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-06 · 3.3% −7pp 21→14¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-05 · Above 2.6% −4pp 74→70¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract predicts whether US GDP expanded less than 1.0% in the first quarter of 2026. The 43% aggregate probability reflects meaningful disagreement across venues: Kalshi traders price it at 58%, while Polymarket participants estimate 23%, a 35-percentage-point gap suggesting different interpretations of recent economic data. The probability hinges on labor market strength, consumer spending patterns, and Fed policy decisions made in late 2025 and early 2026. The single largest catalyst for resolving this uncertainty is the official GDP report released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, typically arriving in late April or early May for Q1 data. This timing means the contract may already reflect preliminary estimates, though revisions occur in subsequent months and could alter the final outcome.

### Key factors

- Q1 2026 GDP is measurable quarterly growth data with a clear numerical threshold (1.0%) published by the BEA, making the outcome binary and verifiable
- Kalshi's 35-point premium over Polymarket suggests either different trader bases, risk preferences, or information sets interpreting the same economic conditions differently
- The contract references a quarterly figure already in the recent past (May 2026 is post-Q1), indicating markets may be pricing incomplete preliminary data subject to future revisions
- Labor market conditions and consumer spending in January-March 2026 are the primary economic drivers; weakness in either would push probability higher
- The 58% Kalshi price indicates near-even odds on the slow-growth scenario among professional traders, reflecting genuine uncertainty rather than consensus

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/us-gdp-growth-q1
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=us-gdp-growth-q1
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/recession

## License

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