# Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 27% across 1 contract — refreshed 6 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/us-invade-cuba
Updated: 2026-05-03T14:35:31.299Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 27% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $35K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | 27¢ | ±0 | $35K | polymarket | /markets/will-the-us-invade-cuba-in-2026-polymarket-0x80ebf0a88a44bf737d4047b3accd7108285c69b84257e5c684bdc4c715c81139 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 21 |
| 2026-04-18 | 25 |
| 2026-04-26 | 24 |
| 2026-05-03 | 28 |

_21 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-28 · Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? +6pp 24→30¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-30 · Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? −6pp 30→24¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? +5pp 23→28¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market estimates a 28% probability that the U.S. military will conduct an invasion of Cuba during 2026. The probability reflects current geopolitical conditions, U.S.-Cuba relations, and perceived likelihood of military escalation. Factors pushing the probability higher include ongoing hemispheric tensions and historical precedent of U.S. intervention in the region. Factors working against it include the diplomatic costs of invasion, Cuba's lack of immediate strategic threat to U.S. territory, and international legal constraints. The uncertainty will likely resolve through either direct military action or the completion of 2026 without invasion occurring. Key monitoring points include statements from U.S. political leadership, Cuban government actions, and developments in broader Caribbean security dynamics.

### Key factors

- Current U.S.-Cuba diplomatic relations status and any official policy statements regarding military options
- Presence or absence of a specific triggering incident (terrorism, hostile action, or military provocation attributed to Cuba)
- Statements and policy positions from U.S. leadership regarding intervention in the Western Hemisphere
- Activity levels at U.S. military bases and overseas deployment announcements relevant to Caribbean operations
- Trading volume and price movement in related contracts (U.S. invasion of Latin America broadly, Iran invasion) as indicator of broader conflict expectations

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/us-invade-cuba
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=us-invade-cuba

## License

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