# US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...

> December 31 leads at 28%, runner-up 10% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 12 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/us-obtains-iranian-enriched-uranium
Updated: 2026-05-03T16:05:48.863Z
Category: general · Topic: iran
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: December 31 at 28%
- Runner-up: May 31 at 10%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $452K

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 28¢ | +1pp | $14K | polymarket | /markets/us-obtains-iranian-enriched-uranium-by-december-31-polymarket-0x58998da8fa20593cf07618032acd580344a79279a8bcc3ed128b668d793c3d6f |
| May 31 | 10¢ | +1pp | $438K | polymarket | /markets/us-obtains-iranian-enriched-uranium-by-may-31-polymarket-0xbcacd5a055f5a9ced6f69f122216c073dd6987d08253fc07bbcc168fa5b81d55 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | December 31 | May 31 |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-23 | — | 12 |
| 2026-04-26 | 28 | 9 |
| 2026-05-02 | 28 | 10 |

_9 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-28 · May 31 +12pp 7→19¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-29 · May 31 −10pp 19→9¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-29 · December 31 −5pp 31→26¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · December 31 +3pp 28→31¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability represents the estimated likelihood that the United States will obtain Iranian enriched uranium through some form of agreement or military action by year-end 2026. The current 28% level reflects two competing forces: near-term contracts (May-June) priced much lower at 8-10%, suggesting skepticism about near-immediate resolution, while the December contract at 28% suggests meaningful possibility over the full year. Key drivers include ongoing negotiations status, Iran's willingness to engage in uranium transfers, and potential military or political escalation. The main catalyst is whether diplomatic talks yield concrete results in the next 6-12 months, as any agreement would likely require inspections, transfers, and verification. Markets are pricing in a low probability of quick resolution but non-trivial chance of arrangement by year-end.

### Key factors

- Current status of JCPOA revival negotiations and whether Iran and US resume direct talks on nuclear matters
- Iran's stated enrichment capacity and stockpile levels as verified by IAEA inspections
- Risk of military action against Iranian nuclear facilities or oil infrastructure (Kharg Island contracts suggest this scenario is priced separately)
- Historical precedent: previous US acquisition of nuclear material from other countries typically required formal agreements with inspections and staged transfers
- December 31, 2026 deadline creates natural time boundary; markets suggest 5-6 month extension from May deadlines reflects lower near-term probability

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/us-obtains-iranian-enriched-uranium
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=us-obtains-iranian-enriched-uranium
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/iran

## License

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