# What are the odds of a US recession in 2026?

> Closed. Last odds frozen 1 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/us-recession
Updated: 2026-06-22T06:40:33.776Z
Category: economy · Topic: recession
Status: historical
Closes: 2027-01-31

## Headline

- Probability: 26% (liquidity-weighted across 9 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1.8M

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US recession by end of 2026? | 13¢ | ±0 | $1.6M | polymarket | /markets/us-recession-by-end-of-2026-polymarket-0xfdc73f10edf0266756686f35b5712cffa828b0940fc015e0426c76c934c2105d |
| June 30 | 4¢ | +1pp | $171K | polymarket | /markets/us-x-cuba-economic-deal-by-june-30-polymarket-0xe34380896d3df2ac2fcd753a01b3a8887acc335778c11e93af952fd273fca7fb |
| UK Recession in 2026? | 32¢ | ±0 | $6K | polymarket | /markets/uk-recession-in-2026-polymarket-0xad89385d3ac086b7642b116b4f794bc280584d8ce2645e6904a9ce09cc6756fd |
| July 31 | 14¢ | −1pp | $4K | polymarket | /markets/us-x-cuba-economic-deal-by-july-31-polymarket-0x789d388bafe08b6c17fefb96ec7ebadc6e997e0883eae5e4918354218e6dd52d |
| Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) | 33¢ | −3pp | $2K | polymarket | /markets/us-economic-state-at-the-end-of-2026-soft-landing-polymarket-0x50e3ee8f93a464d04ea2cea6efff45c902f43642aedbf43f7afdc899e10f71d8 |
| December 31 | 67¢ | −9pp | $1K | polymarket | /markets/us-x-cuba-economic-deal-by-december-31-polymarket-0xca0162ce2961b6c92161382eaf7948a764e7afc6e2b58a476bdc89313c969fa9 |
| Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) | 48¢ | ±0 | $781 | polymarket | /markets/us-economic-state-at-the-end-of-2026-overheating-u-polymarket-0x4e54fc57fcd566b9c7a25fe7a6ed9596ffe1eb95489ba25575b1c4af0ac798f6 |
| Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) | 10¢ | +6pp | $733 | polymarket | /markets/us-economic-state-at-the-end-of-2026-slack-unemplo-polymarket-0x53ba15f24a0194c2ef422cc023d26e86ab03a7fd36a62cb8c0eacf5c2a22cae0 |
| Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) | 14¢ | ±0 | $698 | polymarket | /markets/us-economic-state-at-the-end-of-2026-stagflation-u-polymarket-0x9b1804352d6246bc8b609bc05a3021134269c133bda15e76e05f844539b59774 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-25 | 29 |
| 2026-06-10 | 28 |
| 2026-06-17 | 29 |
| 2026-06-18 | 33 |

_25 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-18 · Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) +6pp 27→33¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-17 · UK Recession in 2026? −4pp 38→34¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-18 · Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) −3pp 35→32¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

Prediction markets currently assign a low 13% probability to a recession occurring in the United States by the end of 2026. While the economy faces uncertainty, market sentiment currently favors an overheating scenario over a downturn, with a 48% chance of continued growth featuring unemployment below 5% and inflation at or above 3.5%. This outlook aligns with current government data showing a 4.3% unemployment rate and 2.57% real GDP growth as of early 2026.

### Key factors

- 13% recession probability by year-end
- 48% probability of economic overheating
- Low 10% chance of high unemployment slack
- Current unemployment at 4.3%
- Real GDP growth at 2.57%

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/us-recession
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=us-recession
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/recession

## License

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