# US strike on Mexico by...

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 13% across 1 contract — refreshed 12 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/us-strike-mexico
Updated: 2026-05-03T22:05:50.290Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 13% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $38

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 13¢ | −1pp | $38 | polymarket | /markets/us-strike-on-mexico-by-december-31-polymarket-0xb23e6d6ba72e76bbce9799daf527e3598a939a602ff5e069cf27a0b25bab50a7 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 22 |
| 2026-04-19 | 23 |
| 2026-04-26 | 12 |
| 2026-05-02 | 13 |

_17 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-29 · December 31 −12pp 24→12¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · December 31 +11pp 13→24¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This contract estimates a 13% chance that the United States will conduct a military strike on Mexico by December 31, 2026. The probability reflects current geopolitical tensions, though military intervention between these neighbors would represent a significant escalation from historical norms. The estimate could rise if cross-border incidents intensify, migration or drug trafficking crises worsen, or if rhetoric between the governments escalates materially. Conversely, it could fall if diplomatic channels strengthen or if other regional concerns take priority in US foreign policy. The biggest uncertainty driver through the end of 2026 is how Mexico's security situation evolves under President Claudia Sheinbaum's administration, particularly regarding cartel violence and transnational crime affecting US interests. Historical precedent suggests such strikes remain unlikely, yet the contract implies meaningful concern about unprecedented escalation.

### Key factors

- Current US-Mexico bilateral relations and official statements regarding use of force as of mid-2026
- Severity and frequency of cross-border security incidents (cartel activity, violence affecting US citizens or territory)
- Mexican government's capacity and willingness to address US security concerns without external military intervention
- Rhetoric and policy positions from the incoming US administration regarding military options in North America
- Volume and recency of comparable geopolitical risk events or precedents involving allied nations

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/us-strike-mexico
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=us-strike-mexico

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.