# US Trade Deficit in 2026 — 600–700B

> 800–900B leads at 39%, runner-up 28% across 7 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/us-trade-deficit
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:50:44.074Z
Category: general · Topic: bitcoin
Status: active
Closes: 2027-02-28

## Headline

- Leader: 800–900B at 39%
- Runner-up: 900B–1T at 28%
- Outcomes: 7 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 800–900B | 39¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/us-trade-deficit-in-2026-800900b-polymarket-0xd3c6552a51528c74c28471aa0a5e13fbafdf84f02a40d11bf173b94032b7e7ef |
| 900B–1T | 28¢ | ±0 | $2 | polymarket | /markets/us-trade-deficit-in-2026-900b1t-polymarket-0x26b69058c1c2c53a8e439504a8755ce75d469ba3a1c82bca934ea7a46f26529e |
| <500B | 11¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/us-trade-deficit-in-2026-500b-polymarket-0xaaf3bc4e63735b3bfcc7a008e00ce7466a699584a50e92d94cd256a0ced72a7c |
| 700–800B | 9¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/us-trade-deficit-in-2026-700800b-polymarket-0x17ac7b249bf0672209617e31a6b56eb79ffa056dc9a3e873b2baba2276675cf4 |
| 1T–1.1T | 9¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/us-trade-deficit-in-2026-1t11t-polymarket-0x9bf22c2451daab2017ba08fc2f2fcc96a37e3f8c7c091d14fa7d719d2d8f6a74 |
| 600–700B | 6¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/us-trade-deficit-in-2026-600700b-polymarket-0xac9d6105090f5e372ceb14422889be27f4a07a8b10497786d2df5946d0d7e9c7 |
| 500–600B | 3¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/us-trade-deficit-in-2026-500600b-polymarket-0x4984dbde0e85feab501afae35635c01581d632dbd671d00e81709fd1801605b8 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 800–900B | 900B–1T | <500B |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 35 | 24 | — |
| 2026-04-15 | 33 | 24 | 8 |
| 2026-04-25 | 45 | 23 | — |
| 2026-04-27 | 42 | 23 | 6 |
| 2026-05-02 | 48 | 30 | 10 |
| 2026-05-09 | 40 | 33 | 10 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · 900B–1T +7pp 30→37¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · 800–900B −6pp 47→41¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · 800–900B +5pp 43→48¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · 800–900B −4pp 41→37¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · 700–800B +4pp 11→15¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This contract asks whether the US trade deficit will fall within the $600–700 billion range during 2026. The current 44% probability indicates a near-even split, with substantial uncertainty about trade dynamics. The forecast reflects competing pressures: ongoing imports relative to exports, potential trade policy shifts under the current administration, and China's trade balance position. Monthly trade data releases, particularly April 2026 figures and subsequent months, will provide concrete evidence of deficit trends. A key catalyst is whether Trump announces a major trade deal before June 1—currently priced at 33%—which could reshape tariff structures and trade flows. Secondary factors include China's balance-of-trade strength and any policy announcements affecting bilateral or broader trade arrangements.

### Key factors

- April 2026 US trade deficit reported by Census Bureau will establish whether the deficit is tracking toward the $600–700B annual range or diverging significantly above or below
- Trump administration announces a new trade deal before June 1, 2026 (33¢ probability), which could materially alter tariff rates and bilateral trade volumes
- China's monthly trade balance consistently above $130B USD (7¢ probability) would signal sustained export pressure affecting US imports and overall deficit calculations
- Cumulative year-to-date deficit through May 2026 provides the running total from which annualized projections are made
- No major policy reversals or enforcement actions change existing tariff regimes between now and year-end 2026

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/us-trade-deficit
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=us-trade-deficit
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/bitcoin

## License

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